国泰君安期货能源化工C3产业链周度报告-20260125

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views LPG - Short - term: The market is strongly influenced by geopolitical dynamics, with a positive sentiment. The supply is temporarily tight due to factors like port weather and geopolitical concerns, while demand remains firm with rigid support from combustion demand. - Medium - to - long - term: As Middle - East maintenance ends and the impact of US fog weakens, supply is expected to recover. With the PDH in deep losses, the demand growth is limited, leading to a downward - trending market [3][4]. Propylene - Next week: The propylene market will remain in a tight - balance situation. Although the upward momentum may slow down due to the compression of downstream profit margins, the strong demand from PO, butanol, etc., will keep the price from falling easily [6]. 3. Summary by Section LPG Part Price & Spread - International propane prices show a strong upward trend, with the FEI and CP indices rising. The domestic LPG price has a mixed performance, with the central price of civil gas falling and the price of ether - post - C4 relatively stable. The lowest deliverable product has changed to East - China civil gas [9][12]. Supply - Domestic LPG production: The total commercial volume of LPG is 529,000 tons, a 2.1% increase from last week. The commercial volume of civil gas is 228,000 tons (+5.8%), and the commercial volume of ether - post - C4 is 164,000 tons (-1.7%). - International supply: US LPG shipments to Asia have increased, while Middle - East shipments are tight [38][47][58]. Demand & Inventory - Chemical demand: The PDH operating rate has dropped significantly to 62% (-11%), while the MTBE operating rate has slightly improved. - Inventory: The refinery inventory of LPG is at a neutral level compared to the same period in 2025. The port inventory shows different trends, with inventory accumulation in South - China and Shandong ports and inventory reduction in East - China ports [73][74][96]. Balance Sheet - In the first quarter, propane is expected to remain seasonally strong. In the second quarter, as the supply returns to normal and production capacity increases, the tight - supply situation is expected to ease [107]. Propylene Part Price & Spread - Upstream prices: Brent, WTI, and other prices have changed slightly. Propane prices have risen, and the profit margins of PDH and other processes have been further compressed. - Propylene prices: International and domestic prices have generally increased, and the import window is partially open. - Downstream prices and profits: The prices and profit margins of different downstream products show different trends, with some products' profit margins being compressed and some showing improvement [110][113][123]. Balance Sheet - Supply: Due to the maintenance of PDH and MTO units, the supply has gradually tightened. - Demand: Driven by policies, the PO procurement demand remains strong. In January, the market is in a tight - balance state, and in mid - to - late February, the supply - demand situation may become more relaxed [154]. Supply - Overall upstream operating rate: It is 71.4% (-3.8%). The operating rate of refineries has changed slightly, with the main - refinery operating rate increasing to 78% and the local - refinery operating rate slightly decreasing to 54%. The operating rate of PDH has dropped significantly to 62.3% (-10.8%), and the profit has been further compressed. The operating rate of MTO has decreased to 84.3% (-1.5%) [165][185][191]. Demand - PP: The operating rate is 76.0% (+0.4%), and the profit margins of different production processes show different trends. Some units are expected to restart next week, which may increase the operating rate. - PP powder: The operating rate is 30.7% (-0.8%), and the profit margin has slightly improved. - PO: The operating rate is 73.0% (+0.5%), and the profit margin has decreased significantly. - Acrylonitrile: The operating rate is 74.7% (-3.5%), and the profit margin has slightly decreased. - Acrylic acid: The operating rate is 81.6% (-0.5%), and the profit margin has slightly increased. - Butanol: The operating rate is 87.5% (0.1%), and the profit margin has increased significantly. - Octanol: The operating rate is 96.0% (+2.0%), and the profit margin has increased significantly. - Phenol - acetone: The operating rate is 85.5% (-3.5%), and the profit margin has decreased. - ECH: The operating rate is 58.05% (+4.30%), and the profit margin and price have increased [206][226][239]. Downstream Inventory - PP and powder: The inventory of PP production enterprises has slightly increased, while the inventory of traders and powder has slightly decreased. - Other downstream products: The inventory of acrylonitrile, phenol, and other products shows different trends [294][296].