国泰君安期货金银周报-20260125

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, London gold rose 7.27% and London silver rose 9.03%. The gold-silver ratio fell from 50.6 to 50.3, the 10-year TIPS rose to 1.92%, the 10-year nominal interest rate fell to 4.24% (2-year 3.6%), and the US dollar index was 97.5 [3]. - Geopolitical tensions have further escalated. The "Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier and its strike group are advancing towards the Persian Gulf, indicating that the US's tough stance towards Iran has entered the stage of substantial military preparation. The relationship between the US and Europe is facing a rift. It is recommended to increase the allocation of gold and pay attention to the new heights brought by the strengthening of its monetary attributes. The target price of gold is raised to $5,500 per ounce [3]. - For silver, the CME inventory has been continuously decreasing, flowing to the London market and then to Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland. The domestic futures and spot inventories continue to decline, and there is a large spot premium in Hong Kong. The target price of silver is raised to $120 per ounce, but attention should be paid to the profit-taking pressure at the integer level [3]. Summary by Directory Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) - Overseas Spot-Futures Price Spread - This week, the spread between London spot gold and COMEX gold主力 rebounded to -$1.79 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was -$47.1 per ounce [9]. - The spread between London spot silver and COMEX silver主力 rebounded to $0.08 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was -$0.335 per ounce [15]. - Domestic Spot-Futures Price Spread - This week, the gold spot-futures price spread was -5.29 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [21]. - The silver spot-futures price spread was 23 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [23]. - Inter-Month Spread - This week, the gold inter-month spread was 8.76 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [27]. - The silver inter-month spread was 18 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [31]. - Cross-Month Arbitrage Delivery Cost - The total cost of the long TD and short Shanghai gold cross-month arbitrage was 26.93 yuan per gram [33]. - The total cost of the long Shanghai gold December contract and short June contract cross-month arbitrage was 7.99 yuan per gram [34]. - The total cost of the long TD and short Shanghai silver cross-month arbitrage was 620.04 yuan per kilogram [35]. - The total cost of the long Shanghai silver December contract and short June contract cross-month arbitrage was -187.07 yuan per kilogram [36]. - Delivery Direction of Deferred Fees in the Shanghai Gold Exchange - This week, the gold deferred fee was mainly paid from longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power, while the silver deferred fee was mainly paid from shorts to longs, indicating strong receiving power [37]. - Inventory and Position-to-Inventory Ratio - This week, the COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.35 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rebounded to 52.1% [39]. - The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 527 tons to 12,952 tons, and the registered warrant ratio fell to 27.4% [41]. - The domestic gold futures inventory increased by 1.96 tons, and the silver futures inventory decreased by 45.75 tons to 581 tons [45]. - CFTC Non-Commercial Positions - This week, the non-commercial net long position of COMEX gold in CFTC decreased slightly, and the non-commercial net long position of silver also decreased slightly [47]. - ETF Positions - This week, the inventory of the gold SPDR ETF increased by 0.86 tons, and the domestic gold ETF increased by 11.2 tons [50]. - The inventory of the silver SLV ETF increased by 16.92 tons [54]. - Gold-Silver Ratio - This week, the gold-silver ratio fell from 50.6 to 50.3 [56]. - COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold-Silver Lease Rates - This week, the 3M gold lease rate was -0.31%, and the 3M silver lease rate was 5.26% [58]. Core Drivers of Gold - Gold and Real Interest Rates - This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline [63]. - Inflation and Retail Sales Performance - Not summarized in detail due to lack of specific analysis content. - Non-Farm Payroll Performance - Not summarized in detail due to lack of specific analysis content. - Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions - Not summarized in detail due to lack of specific analysis content. - Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index - Not summarized in detail due to lack of specific analysis content. - Probability of Fed Rate Cuts - Not summarized in detail due to lack of specific analysis content.