国泰君安期货煤焦周度观点-20260125

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coal and coke market is characterized by the combination of industry and capital, with the market in a range - bound oscillation. The mid - term downward depth needs further verification. There are three main factors causing recent market disturbances: the fermentation of steel mill events weakening downstream复产 expectations, the release of spot selling pressure due to the unlocking of futures and spot positions, and the change in long - short positions of relevant exchange seats affecting the market sentiment. However, inventory replenishment is expected to occur later, and the market pressure will be relieved after the unlocking of futures and spot positions. It is recommended to use the strategy of selling out - of - the - money options on both sides [5]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Coal and Coke Weekly Viewpoint Supply - In domestic supply, safety and environmental inspections in Linfen, Shanxi, and some underground problems have tightened the supply in the region. In other areas like Lvliang and Changzhi, the output of some mines has continued to recover, resulting in a slight increase in overall supply. The sample coal mine raw coal output increased by 5.58 tons week - on - week to 1219.62 tons, and the capacity utilization rate rose by 0.39% to 84.85%. In terms of imports, the port clearance decreased at the beginning of the week due to extremely cold weather and then remained at a high level [3]. Demand - This week, the hot metal output increased slightly by 0.09 tons to 228.1 tons, and the steel mill复产 is still slow. Downstream steel mills and coking plants have completed some inventory replenishment, with inventory slightly increasing, but they lack the willingness for further replenishment. However, there is still an expectation of inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival, limiting the downward space of coal prices [6]. Inventory - This week, the total coking coal inventory increased by 35.6 tons week - on - week. The inventory in the coal washing plant decreased by 12.7 tons, while the inventory in the independent coking link increased by 44.9 tons, indicating a transfer of inventory downstream, but the replenishment rhythm slowed down compared with last week [6]. Viewpoint Summary - The combination of industry and capital makes the mid - term downward depth uncertain. There are three main factors causing market disturbances: steel mill events, spot selling pressure, and changes in exchange positions. Although inventory replenishment is delayed, it is expected to occur. The market pressure will be relieved after the unlocking of futures and spot positions. It is recommended to use the strategy of selling out - of - the - money options on both sides. Also, be vigilant against black - swan events, and the supply release in the first half of the year is expected to be relatively conservative [5]. Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes | Category | Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 871.79 (+8.84), FW clean coal 441.48 (+2.27) | Independent coking plant daily average 63.3 (-0.1), steel mill coking enterprise daily average 46.9 (+0.2) | | Demand | Hot metal output 228.1 (+0.09) | Hot metal output 228.1 (+0.09) | | Inventory | MS total inventory +35.6, mine raw coal - 15.18, mine clean coal - 11.37, independent coking +44.9, steel mill coking +1.3, port - 2.4, port of entry - 3.1 | MS total inventory +15.1, independent coking - 0.4, steel mill +11.3, port +4.2 | | Profit | Commodity coal 481 (+18) | Coking enterprise average profit - 6 (-14) | | Warehouse receipt | Mongolian 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt 1198 | Port quasi - dry quenched coke warehouse receipt 1700 | [8] Coking Coal Fundamental Data Supply - There are data on weekly and monthly coking coal supply, including the output of raw coal and clean coal from sample mines, and the coking coal production of different regions. There are also data on the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at various ports [10][12][14]. Inventory - Pit - mouth inventory: The raw coal inventory of sample coal mines decreased by 14.3 tons week - on - week to 186.42 tons, and the clean coal inventory decreased by 3.43 tons to 130.63 tons. Port inventory: The coking coal port inventory was 289.38 tons, a decrease of 9.52 tons week - on - week. There are also data on the inventory of coking plants and steel mills, including regional and capacity - based inventory and available days [24][26][29]. Coke Fundamental Data Supply - There are data on the capacity utilization rate and output of coking plants and steel mills. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants and steel mills is presented, as well as the daily output of coke from independent coking plants and steel mills [37][45][47]. Inventory - There are data on the inventory of coking plants, steel mills, and the total inventory of the whole sample. The inventory of coking plants and steel mills is presented, including regional and available - days - based inventory [49][50][59]. Demand - The demand for coke is mainly related to the hot metal output, and the supply - demand difference of coke is also analyzed [61]. Profit - There are data on the profit of coke, including the disk profit of coke per ton and the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises [64]. Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices Coking Coal Futures - The futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of coking coal 2605 and coking coal 2609 are presented, along with the price changes of recent days [67]. Coke Futures - The futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of coke 2605 and coke 2609 are presented, along with the price changes of recent days [70]. Coal and Coke Monthly Spread - The monthly spreads of coking coal and coke in different years are presented [73][75]. Coal and Coke Spot - The spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke are presented [79]. Coal and Coke Basis - The basis of coking coal and coke is presented, including the difference between warehouse receipts and futures prices [81].