工业硅：上游减产发酵，震荡偏强，多晶硅：关注市场消息提振盘面

Report Date - The report is dated January 25, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Industrial silicon inventory continues to accumulate, but upstream production cuts are driving supply reduction. The supply reduction is greater than the demand reduction, leading to a shift to de - stocking in the monthly balance. It is recommended to wait for low - valuation opportunities to go long. The expected trading range for the next week is 8200 - 9300 yuan/ton [6][7] - The polysilicon market is in a state of wide - range oscillation. The supply is weak while the demand is strong. The bottom of the market has support, but the market liquidity has been decreasing. It is not recommended to participate in futures, but options can be considered. The expected trading range for the next week is 48000 - 55000 yuan/ton [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - The reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses for industrial silicon from January 6 to 23, 2026, remained stable. For example, the price of Si5530 in East China was 9250 yuan/ton during this period [10] 2. Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Smelting and Raw Materials - Production and Inventory: This week, the social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.1 million tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.56 million tons, with a total industry inventory increase of 0.66 million tons. The overall weekly production decreased slightly. In the southwest, due to the dry season, the cost is 10000 - 10500 yuan/ton (converted to the futures price), and the local production has dropped to a very low level. Some factories in Xinjiang also have a driving force to cut production due to raw material issues [3][11] - Price and Profit: The report provides historical data and trends of industrial silicon's monthly opening rate, monthly production, export and import volume, trade - link inventory - to - sales ratio, and the prices of raw materials such as silica, petroleum coke, washed coking coal, charcoal, electrodes, and electricity in major production areas [13][15][17][22] 3. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Polysilicon - Market Conditions: The polysilicon market showed wide - range oscillation this week. The upstream price quotation may be loose, and attention should be paid to the downstream restocking node in late January. The short - term weekly production decreased, and the inventory increased. The average full - cost is about 45000 - 46000 yuan/ton. The silicon wafer production increased week - on - week, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the future [2][4][5] - Data Trends: The report presents historical data and trends of polysilicon's spot price, production volume and year - on - year change, industry opening rate, import and export volume, industry profit, single - crystal silicon wafer export volume, domestic photovoltaic monthly new - installed capacity, and new photovoltaic grid - connected capacity [18][19][21][23][25] 4. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Organic Silicon - Market Conditions: This week, the weekly production of organic silicon decreased, and the self - discipline plan may further cut production to support prices. The cancellation of export tax rebates after April 1 may lead to pre - emptive exports and some consumption increase [4] - Data Trends: The report shows historical data and trends of the average price, monthly opening rate, production volume and monthly year - on - year change, factory inventory, export volume and year - on - year change, and industry profit of domestic DMC [25][26] 5. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Aluminum Alloy - Market Conditions: Aluminum alloy ingot manufacturers stock up on industrial silicon at a reasonable level. They have a relatively high enthusiasm for purchasing at low prices and a high degree of wait - and - see sentiment during other periods. Overseas demand in the export market has not improved [4] - Data Trends: The report provides historical data and trends of the price seasonality, monthly opening rate, average profit of the recycled aluminum industry, and the seasonality of domestic automobile monthly sales [27][28][32]