铁矿石周度观点-20260125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The decline of iron ore prices is limited due to the support of downstream replenishment demand. The relatively conservative downstream start - up has led to a bottoming - out sign of steel mill profits, and the decline of ore prices has stimulated the replenishment demand of some steel mills. It is expected that the overall decline of raw material prices is limited, and the macro - risk preference may once again dominate the price direction. In the short term, the iron ore price may show a neutral and slightly strong trend [3][5] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore Contract Performance - The price of the main 05 contract fluctuated weakly, closing at 786.50 yuan/ton. The position was 568,800 lots, with a weekly decrease of 80,000 lots. The average daily trading volume was 282,000 lots, with a weekly increase of 158,000 lots [7] 3.2 Spot Price Performance - The decline of medium - and low - grade spot prices was relatively small. For example, the price of Carajás fines (64.5%) decreased from 900 yuan/ton last week to 887 yuan/ton this week, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton [11] 3.3 Iron Ore Supply 3.3.1 Mainstream Mines - Overseas shipments decreased month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level year - on - year. The freight rate has bottomed out and rebounded, and there may be an increase in supply in the future. For example, the global shipment volume was 29.29 million tons this week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.51 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 7 million tons [4][5] 3.3.2 Non - mainstream Mines - Non - mainstream mines contributed the main increase at the beginning of the year, such as the shipments from India, Peru, Ukraine, Canada, and South Africa [20] 3.3.3 Domestic Mines - The overall operation of domestic mines continued to pick up [29] 3.4 Iron Ore Demand 3.4.1 Downstream - The marginal performance of hot metal production and the output data of five major steel products were relatively stable [32] 3.4.2 Substitution Effect of Scrap Steel - As the iron ore price weakened previously, the price difference between scrap steel and hot metal has expanded [35] 3.5 Iron Ore Inventory - Port inventory is operating at a high level, including the inventory of imported ore, iron concentrate, pellets, lump ore, and powder ore at 45 ports [39][41] 3.6 Downstream Profits - The decline of raw material prices helps to repair the profit of the steel plate surface [43] 3.7 Spot Category Price Difference - The relative price trend of PB powder has weakened, and various price difference indicators have shown a certain regression trend [45] 3.8 Futures Spread - The decline of the near - month main contract was greater, and the spread between May and September further weakened [47] 3.9 Basis Performance - The performance of the futures market was relatively weak. After the spot price dropped, there was support from replenishment demand, and the basis was slightly higher year - on - year [50]