国泰君安期货螺纹钢、热轧卷板周度报告-20260125

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The cost and demand are in a game, and steel prices will fluctuate widely [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Fundamental Analysis - Macro Environment: The central economic work conference mentioned "anti-involution" again. The special commentator of Qiushi magazine proposed to improve and stabilize the real estate market expectations, and the overall macro environment is warm [5][8] - Black Industry Chain: Iron water production is expected to stop falling and then fluctuate upwards. Attention should be paid to hot-rolled coil inventory. The supply and demand pattern of steel is loose, but the cost supports the steel prices to fluctuate widely. Technically, the black chain index, rebar, hot-rolled coil, and coke contracts face the pressure of previous highs, and chasing up may need to wait for the price to break through [5][9][11] Rebar Fundamental Data - Basis and Spread: The current situation is weak while the expectation is strong, and the basis and spread are in a reverse arbitrage [14] - Demand: New home sales remain at a low level, and market confidence is still low. The traditional off-season leads to a decline in demand [19][22][23] - MS Weekly Data: Supply and demand are both weak, and inventory is healthy. The long and short process supply and inventory information is also provided [24][26] - Production Profit: Steel mills' resumption of production and restocking expectations lead to a narrowing of the disk profit [29] Hot-rolled Coil Fundamental Data - Basis and Spread: The current situation is weak while the expectation is strong, and the basis and spread are in a reverse arbitrage [34] - Demand: Demand is flat. It is in the traditional off-season, and demand is falling. However, exports remain at a high level through price-for-volume strategy [39][40] - MS Weekly Data: Hot-rolled coil inventory is high, and production is cut to reduce inventory. The production is maintained at a low level [45][46] - Production Profit: Steel mills' resumption of production and restocking expectations lead to a narrowing of the disk profit [48] Variety Regional Difference - The report shows the regional price differences of rebar, cold-rolled coil, hot-rolled coil, and medium-thick plate [58][59][61][62][64] Cold-rolled Coil and Medium-thick Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report provides the seasonal data of total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold-rolled coil and medium-thick plate [65][66]