转债市场周报：强化对个券赎回的预期管理-20260125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the week of January 19 - 23, the stock market had large - scale net outflows of funds from important index ETFs, but the main indices were still oscillating strongly. The bond market was affected by regulatory news and the central bank's actions, with the 10 - year Treasury bond rate falling. The convertible bond market generally rose, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index up 2.92% [1][7][8]. - In the context of strong equity market sentiment and tight supply - demand of convertible bonds, the convertible bond market continued to rise last week, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index hitting a new high in nearly 10 years. It is recommended to avoid the risks of individual bonds with high redemption pressure and limited upward driving force of the underlying stocks [2][17]. - Looking forward, although the valuation vulnerability of the convertible bond market has further increased, the upward trend of the equity market is clear, providing support for convertible bond valuation. In the coming week, it is advisable to focus on sectors with high performance certainty and low - valuation leading stocks in under - performing industries [3][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Focus (January 19 - 23) - Stock Market: There were large - scale net outflows of funds from important index ETFs, but the main indices were oscillating strongly with daily trading volume above 2.5 trillion yuan. The "15th Five - Year Plan" for power grid investment boosted the power grid equipment sector, and precious metals rose significantly due to global geopolitical situations. Different sectors showed fragmented performance on different days, and most Shenwan primary industries rose, with building materials, petroleum and petrochemicals, etc. leading the gains, while banks, communication, etc. lagging behind [1][7][8]. - Bond Market: The economic data announced last week was in line with expectations. The mid - week capital situation was tight but improved after the central bank's intervention. News of regulatory intention to cool the equity market was favorable for the bond market sentiment. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate closed at 1.8298% on Friday, down 1.26bp from the previous week [1][7][8]. - Convertible Bond Market: Most convertible bond individual securities rose. The CSI Convertible Bond Index was up 2.92% for the week, the median price was up 3.01%, and the arithmetic average parity was up 3.66%. The overall conversion premium rate decreased by 0.96% compared with the previous week. The textile and clothing, steel, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors in the convertible bond market led the gains, while social services, media, etc. lagged behind. In terms of individual bonds, Jiamei, Fuxin, etc. had the top gains, while Dongshi, Yinbang, etc. had the top losses. The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 4395.97 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 879.19 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous week [1][8][12]. 3.2 Views and Strategies (January 26 - 30) - Risk Avoidance: Strengthen the expected management of individual bond redemptions. Due to the "unexpected redemptions" of some targets at the beginning of the week, the valuation of high - parity convertible bonds was compressed. It is recommended to avoid the risks of individual bonds with high redemption pressure and limited upward driving force of the underlying stocks by considering factors such as remaining term and short - term stock price demands [2][17]. - Investment Suggestions: Although the valuation vulnerability of the convertible bond market has increased, the upward trend of the equity market provides support for convertible bond valuation. In the week of January 26 - 30, it is advisable to focus on sectors with high performance certainty such as semiconductor equipment and materials, chemical industry, lithium battery, CXO, etc., and low - valuation leading stocks in under - performing industries for absolute return funds [3][18]. 3.3 Valuation Overview - As of January 23, the average conversion premium rates of equity - biased convertible bonds in different price ranges were at high percentile values since 2010 and 2021. The average YTM of debt - biased convertible bonds with a parity below 70 yuan was - 5.66%, at the 0%/1% percentile since 2010 and 2021. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds and the difference between the implied volatility and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks were also at high percentile values [19]. 3.4 Primary Market Tracking - Last Week (January 19 - 23): Aiwei and Longjian convertible bonds announced their issuance, and no convertible bonds were listed. Aiwei Convertible Bond has a scale of 19.01 billion yuan, and Longjian Convertible Bond has a scale of 10 billion yuan [26][27]. - Next Week (January 26 - 30): No convertible bonds are announced for issuance, and Lianrui Convertible Bond will be listed, with a scale of 6.95 billion yuan [28][29]. - Overall Situation: As of January 23, there were 97 convertible bonds to be issued, with a total scale of 1522.3 billion yuan, including 8 that have been approved for registration, with a total scale of 61.6 billion yuan [30].