转债周度跟踪20260123：转债跟随小微盘同步活跃-20260125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, small and micro-cap stocks have been active. Despite policy cooling signals, they still benefit from loose liquidity. The CSI 2000 and Wind Small and Micro-cap Index have led the gains, which is suitable for the convertible bond style. The underlying stocks of convertible bonds have risen significantly, and the convertible bonds have simultaneously increased in valuation. Valuation indicators such as the convertible bond's 100-yuan premium rate and median price have reached new highs since 2017. Structurally, the price ranges of 130 - 140 yuan and above 150 yuan have shown strong performance. High-parity convertible bonds remain active, while newly issued convertible bonds have relatively poor performance. Currently, the bull market expectation in the equity market is relatively consistent, with high capital activity. Convertible bonds are experiencing a "double hit" market of parity and valuation. However, in the state of strong equity characteristics and high conversion premium rates, it is still necessary to beware of the forced redemption risk of individual bonds [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint and Outlook - Small and micro-cap stocks are active, and convertible bonds are in a "double hit" market of parity and valuation. However, the forced redemption risk of individual bonds needs to be watched out for [1][2]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - This week, the underlying stocks of convertible bonds performed actively, and the convertible bonds rose synchronously. The 100-yuan premium rate increased by 0.9% to 33.5%, reaching the 100th percentile since 2017. Currently, the 100-yuan premium rate of convertible bonds is still above the 2 - standard deviation [3]. - The valuations of convertible bonds in each parity range have increased significantly. The valuation increase in the equity - biased area is slightly higher than that in the debt - biased area, but the overall gap has narrowed compared with the previous period. The valuation in the 120 - 140 yuan parity range has increased significantly, mainly due to the significant increase in the activity of the underlying stocks. The valuation in the parity range above 140 yuan has only increased slightly, mainly due to the disturbance of forced redemption [7]. - From the perspective of individual bonds, in the high - parity area, Xinfu and Yinbang have entered the forced redemption process, and the expectation of forced redemption has increased, resulting in a relatively large decline in the conversion premium rate. Shuangliang, Hebang, Ruike, Zhoubang, Hengshuai, and Daimei have significantly increased their valuations due to the obvious rise of their underlying stocks. The valuations in the balanced and debt - biased areas have generally increased slightly. The valuations of near - maturity convertible bonds are weak. In addition, the valuation of the newly issued Anke convertible bond is slowly shrinking due to the weak performance of its underlying stock [8]. 3.3 Clause Tracking 3.3.1 Redemption - This week, Tianjian, Fuli, Sailong, Shentong, Beigang, and Huazheng convertible bonds announced redemptions, and 2 convertible bonds announced non - redemptions, with a forced redemption rate of 75%. Currently, there are 49 convertible bonds in the redemption process. Next week, 8 are expected to meet the redemption conditions, and 10 are expected to issue announcements of potential redemption triggers. In addition, 26 convertible bonds are expected to enter the forced redemption counting period within the next month [1][17][19]. 3.3.2 Downward Revision - This week, Hongchuan convertible bond proposed a downward revision, and Fangyuan convertible bond announced the downward revision result (not revised to the bottom). As of now, 101 convertible bonds are in the temporary non - downward revision range, 20 convertible bonds cannot be downward - revised due to net asset constraints, 1 convertible bond has triggered the condition and the stock price is still lower than the downward - revision trigger price but no announcement has been made, 16 convertible bonds are accumulating downward - revision days, and 3 convertible bonds have issued downward - revision board plans but have not yet gone to the general meeting of shareholders [1][23]. 3.3.3 Put Option - This week, no convertible bonds issued conditional put option announcements. As of now, 3 convertible bonds are accumulating put option trigger days, among which 1 convertible bond proposed a downward revision, and 2 convertible bonds are in the temporary non - downward revision range [1][27]. 3.4 Primary Issuance - As of now, there are 10 convertible bonds in the process of consent registration, with a to - be - issued scale of 8.8 billion yuan, and no convertible bonds are in the process of passing the listing committee [29].