有色金属周报：避险情绪发酵，贵金属价格冲高-20260125

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][58]. Core Viewpoints - Precious Metals - Gold: The price of precious metals has surged due to heightened risk aversion, with the COMEX gold futures contract reaching $4983.1 per ounce, an increase of 8.3% month-on-month. The SPDR Gold ETF saw a 0.1% increase to 1087 tons. Factors such as the U.S. imposing tariffs on European countries opposing its claim over Greenland and potential sales of U.S. Treasury bonds by Europe have contributed to this trend. The weakening dollar credit is expected to continue, supporting the upward trend in gold prices [4]. - Industrial Metals: There is optimism regarding the upward trend in industrial metal prices, particularly copper, aluminum, and tin, driven by tightening supply and increasing demand [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Precious Metals - Gold: As of January 23, the COMEX gold futures price reached $4983.1 per ounce, reflecting an 8.3% increase. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 0.1% to 1087 tons. The ongoing U.S. debt issues and central bank gold purchases are expected to support gold prices in the long term [4]. 2. Industrial Metals - Copper: As of January 23, the SHFE copper futures price rose by 0.57% to 101340 yuan per ton. Domestic copper social inventory was 330,200 tons, while LME copper inventory was 171,700 tons. The tightening supply expectations and the anticipated Fed rate cuts are expected to drive copper prices higher [6]. - Aluminum: The SHFE aluminum futures price increased by 1.5% to 24290 yuan per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory was 743,000 tons. The market is expected to see stable prices with a tightening supply-demand balance [6]. - Tin: The SHFE tin futures price rose by 6% to 429,600 yuan per ton. Domestic social inventory was 10,678 tons. Supply concerns due to geopolitical issues and increasing demand from AI technology are expected to keep tin prices elevated [6]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the following sectors: - Gold: Continued uncertainty in overseas macro conditions supports gold's safe-haven attributes. Recommended stock: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining. - Copper: Domestic demand recovery and tightening supply are expected to support copper prices. Recommended stock: Luoyang Molybdenum. - Aluminum: The strong supply-demand dynamics are expected to drive aluminum prices higher. Recommended stock: Tianshan Aluminum [7][55].