Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-01-25 12:08Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a stable recovery in demand, with oil prices expected to remain in a range of $55-70 per barrel due to OPEC+ production delays and improved global economic conditions [4][5]. - The report highlights a recovery in spandex prices, an ongoing improvement in titanium dioxide supply and demand, and an anticipated acceleration in dye supply clearance [4][5]. - The investment strategy suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from the "anti-involution" policy, including textiles, agriculture, and export chains, with specific company recommendations provided [4][5]. Industry Dynamics - Oil: OPEC+ has delayed production increases, and shale oil production has peaked, leading to a slowdown in supply growth. Demand is stabilizing with improved global economic conditions [5]. - Spandex: The overall operating rate in the spandex industry has increased from 79% to 87%, with prices rising by 1,000 CNY per ton as of January 20, 2026 [4][5]. - Titanium Dioxide: The closure of production facilities by major companies is expected to improve profitability, with recommendations to focus on leading companies in this sector [4][5]. - Dyes: The price of core intermediates for disperse dyes has increased by over 50%, indicating a potential industry clearance [4][5]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests a diversified investment approach across various chains, including textiles, agriculture, and export-related chemicals, with specific companies highlighted for potential growth [4][20]. - Key materials for semiconductor and panel manufacturing are emphasized, with recommendations for companies involved in these sectors [4][5]. - The report also notes the importance of focusing on companies that can achieve self-sufficiency in critical materials [4][5].