地方债周度跟踪20260123：下周地方债供给明显放量-20260125

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local bonds in the current period have increased month-on-month, and it is expected that the issuance and net financing of local bonds in the next period will rise significantly month-on-month [2] - The issuance progress of new general bonds this year is slower than the same period in previous years, but the issuance of new special bonds has significantly accelerated since late January [2] - The planned issuance scale of local bonds in Q1 2026 is equivalent to that in the same period in 2025. The issuance of refinancing bonds in Q1 2026 may be similar to that in Q1 2025, with the front-loading of refinancing bond issuance boosting the increase in local bond issuance, but the proportion of refinancing general bonds is relatively higher than in 2025. The planned issuance scale is larger in January and March 2026 compared to previous years [2] - The current 10Y local bonds still have certain cost-effectiveness [2] Summary by Directory 1. The issuance volume of local bonds in the current period has increased, and the weighted issuance term has shortened - The total issuance/net financing of local bonds in the current period (January 19 - January 25, 2026) is 231.57 billion yuan/203.16 billion yuan (74.841 billion yuan/68.566 billion yuan in the previous period), and the expected issuance/net financing in the next period (January 26 - February 1, 2026) is 439.275 billion yuan/310.854 billion yuan [2] - The weighted issuance term of local bonds in the current period is 15.88 years, shorter than 19.45 years in the previous period (January 12 - January 18, 2026) [2] - As of January 23, 2026, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounts for 2.7% and 4.0% of the annual quota respectively, and 7.6% and 8.4% considering the expected issuance in the next period [2] - The planned issuance scale of local bonds in Q1 2026 is 235.87 billion yuan, equivalent to that in the same period in 2025. The issuance of refinancing bonds in Q1 2026 may be similar to that in Q1 2025, with the front-loading of refinancing bond issuance boosting the increase in local bond issuance, but the proportion of refinancing general bonds is relatively higher than in 2025. The planned issuance scale is larger in January and March 2026 compared to previous years [2] - The special new special bonds in the current period issued 6.3 billion yuan, and the special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts issued 102.3 billion yuan and 0 billion yuan respectively [2] 2. The spread between local bonds and national bonds in the current period has narrowed for 10Y and 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate has increased month-on-month - As of January 23, 2026, the spreads between 10-year and 30-year local bonds and national bonds are 21.02BP and 14.29BP respectively, narrowing by 0.74BP and 3.35BP compared to January 16, 2026, and are at the 60.70% and 50.50% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2] - The weekly turnover rate of local bonds in the current period is 0.66%, up from 0.64% in the previous period [2] - The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local bonds in regions such as Liaoning, Ningbo, and Guizhou are better than the national average [2]