原油月报：短期交易地缘局势动荡，油价或震荡偏强-20260125

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Stronger than the Market" (maintained) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report Short - term - Short - term geopolitical risks are rising, and oil prices may show a volatile and upward - biased trend. In January 2026, oil prices showed a volatile and upward - biased trend. Tensions between the US and Venezuela, and turmoil in the Middle East have made geopolitical risks the main factor supporting oil prices again. Multiple geopolitical events have occurred, such as the US military attack on Venezuela on January 3, Trump's meeting with oil company executives on January 9, and threats to Iran [2]. Medium - term - The medium - term fundamentals may further widen, and the central direction of oil prices is still downward. OPEC+ has not completed its restorative production increase plan, American countries continue to increase production, and Venezuelan oil may gradually restore its production to the pre - sanction level. The pressure of supply surplus is difficult to relieve. It is expected that the global crude oil inventory will continue to accumulate in 2026, and the central price of Brent oil is expected to be around $56 per barrel [6][8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1.1 OPEC - In December 2025, OPEC 12 - country crude oil production was 28,564 thousand barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 105 thousand barrels per day. OPEC+ (excluding countries without quota restrictions) production was 37,438 thousand barrels per day, a decrease of 198 thousand barrels per day compared with the previous month. OPEC+ plans to suspend the production increase plan from January to March 2026, and the supply of Venezuelan, Iranian, and Russian oil may be disturbed by geopolitical factors [14] 1.2 OPEC - In December 2025, Non - OPEC DoC crude oil production was 14,267 thousand barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 343 thousand barrels per day. Kazakhstan's production decreased by 237 thousand barrels per day, and Russia's production decreased by 73 thousand barrels per day. It is estimated that the year - on - year increase in crude oil supply from Non - DoC countries in 2025, 2026, and 2027 will be 930,000 barrels per day, 600,000 barrels per day, and 590,000 barrels per day respectively [22] 1.3 - In December 2025, the global total number of drilling rigs was 1,854, a month - on - month decrease of 30. The total number of drilling rigs in Canada decreased by 19, and that in the US decreased by 3. In December 2025, the number of new wells drilled in the seven major shale oil producing areas in the US increased by 10 month - on - month, the number of newly completed wells decreased by 7, and the number of inventory wells decreased by 29 [27] 1.4 OPEC - OPEC predicts that the global oil demand in 2026 will be 106.5 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.38 million barrels per day. The oil demand in China will be 17.1 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 200,000 barrels per day. In 2027, the global oil demand is expected to be 107.9 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.34 million barrels per day, and China's oil demand will be 17.3 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 200,000 barrels per day [28] 2.1 EIA - According to the EIA's January 2026 report, the supply - demand gap of global crude oil and related liquid fuels from 2025 to 2027 will be +2.59 million, +2.83 million, and +2.09 million barrels per day respectively. It is expected that the global crude oil will continue to accumulate inventory from 2026 to 2027. The average price of Brent oil is expected to drop to $56 per barrel in 2026, a 19% decrease from 2025, and to $54 per barrel in 2027 [31] 2.2 EIA - In January 2026, the global crude oil production was 79.43 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 1.0926 million barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 2.7363 million barrels per day. It is expected that the global oil production will increase by 1.37 million barrels per day and 530,000 barrels per day year - on - year in 2026 and 2027 respectively. After the OPEC+ production increase plan is completed in 2026, the increase in 2027 may slow down significantly, and the production of the US may decrease year - on - year in 2027, while the increase from new projects in South America will dominate [37] 2.3 EIA - In January 2026, the global oil demand was 102.38 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 2.8818 million barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 997,600 barrels per day. It is predicted that the global oil demand will be 104.82 million barrels per day in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 1.13 million barrels per day, and 106.09 million barrels per day in 2027, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 million barrels per day. China and India are the main sources of global oil consumption growth [40] 3.1 IEA - The IEA predicts that the global oil supply will still be in surplus in 2026. The export of Iranian and Venezuelan oil has great uncertainties. In 2025, the global oil supply increased by 3 million barrels per day year - on - year, and it is expected to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. In November 2025, the global oil inventory increased sharply, and the export of Iranian and Venezuelan oil decreased [41] 3.2 IEA - The IEA predicts that the year - on - year increase in global oil demand in 2025 and 2026 will be about 850,000 barrels per day and 930,000 barrels per day respectively. The year - on - year increase in global oil consumption in 2026 may be mainly provided by liquefied petroleum gas and naphtha, and China's naphtha demand may continue to show a large increase [47] 5.1 Investment Suggestions - In the short term, oil prices may show a volatile and upward - biased trend, and the support for Brent oil prices at $60 per barrel is strong. In the medium term, the supply surplus pressure is difficult to relieve, and the central price of Brent oil is expected to be around $56 per barrel. It is recommended to pay attention to domestic oil companies that continue to focus on domestic oil and gas resource exploration, have clear goals for increasing reserves and production, and have great potential for overseas market development, such as PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, Offshore Oil Engineering, CNOOC Energy Technology & Services, Zhongman Petroleum, and Intercontinental Oil & Gas [60]