宏观周度述评系列：从达沃斯论坛看全球经济的关注焦点-20260125

Global Economic Focus - The 2026 World Economic Forum highlighted geopolitical economic risks as the primary concern, with multilateralism declining and global trade facing severe disruptions[8] - Countries are increasingly seeking strategic autonomy in energy, food, and critical minerals, as emphasized by leaders like Canadian Prime Minister Carney[9] - Investment in key resources and industries is rising, with Canada planning $1 trillion in sectors like energy and AI, while Germany focuses on renewable energy and advanced manufacturing[10] Market Performance Insights - Global asset performance remains chaotic, with non-economic factors dominating market dynamics; gold and silver show strength while U.S. stocks underperform[13] - The S&P 500 fear and greed index rose to 50, indicating a shift in market sentiment despite ongoing volatility[14] - A-share market saw a mild increase of 1.81%, with significant sectoral divergence; nearly 80% of industries recorded gains, led by materials and energy[21] Inflation and Economic Indicators - January's actual and nominal GDP growth is projected at 4.86% and 4.35%, respectively, amid fluctuating production rates and improving PPI[13] - The CPI is under pressure from high base effects, but seasonal price increases in pork and oil are creating a counterbalance[13] Monetary and Fiscal Policies - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have decreased, with a 14.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut by March[19] - China's fiscal policy is set to become more proactive in 2026, focusing on enhancing total volume and structural efficiency[13] Risk Factors - Potential risks include geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and unexpected pressures in the domestic real estate market[13]