全球资产配置每周聚焦（20260116-20260123）：人民币升值期间大类资产复盘-20260125

Global Market Overview - During the period from January 16 to January 23, 2026, geopolitical conflicts intensified, leading to an increase in precious metals, with gold rising by 8.3%[6] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained at 4.2%, while the U.S. dollar index decreased by 1.88%[6] Asset Performance During RMB Appreciation - Since 2000, the RMB has experienced 6 rounds of appreciation and 4 rounds of depreciation, influenced by currency reforms and global trade cycles[8] - During RMB appreciation, stocks generally showed higher stability, with the ChiNext outperforming the CSI 300, except in 2017[10] - In the bond market, the national debt index recorded negative returns during appreciation periods in 2017, 2023, and 2025, while other periods showed positive returns[10] Fund Flows - As of January 21, 2026, both domestic and foreign capital flowed into the Chinese stock market, with foreign active funds inflowing $3.38 billion and passive funds inflowing $16.65 billion[3] - Domestic capital saw an outflow of $493.17 billion, while foreign capital inflow totaled $20.03 billion in the same week[3] Valuation Metrics - As of January 23, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index's valuation exceeded that of the KOSPI 200, CAC 40, and S&P 500, reaching 92.9% of its 10-year historical average[3] - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite remains relatively high, indicating good allocation value compared to global markets[3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. inflation rate, as measured by the PCE index, has remained low, indicating economic cooling[5] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates between 3.5% and 3.75% is 95.60%, stable compared to the previous week[5]