固定收益定期：银行配债需求为何增加

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is gradually recovering, and the repair market is expected to unfold step - by - step. The dumbbell strategy may be more advantageous, and it is recommended to focus on certificates of deposit and long - term interest - rate bonds [4][17]. - Banks have the willingness and ability to allocate bonds. The high cost - performance of the bond market explains banks' buying willingness, and banks' relatively sufficient funds support their continuous bond - allocation ability [1][7]. - Bank foreign exchange settlement does not increase bond - allocation funds but may improve bank indicators and reduce the need for certificate - of - deposit financing [4][16]. Summary by Related Content Bond Market Performance - This week, the bond market continued to recover, with most interest rates declining. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds dropped by 1.3bps and 1.6bps to 1.83% and 2.29% respectively. The yields of 3 - year and 5 - year secondary capital bonds fell by 2.6bps and 2.2bps to 1.9% and 2.15% respectively. The 1 - year AAA certificate - of - deposit rate dropped by 3.00bps to 1.595%, breaking through the 1.6% mark [1][7]. Banks' Willingness to Allocate Bonds - The high cost - performance of the current bond market can explain banks' buying willingness. The comprehensive income of long - term bonds is higher than that of loans. For example, the average mortgage loan interest rate is around 3.0%, and even considering only 25% tax, the comprehensive income is still lower than the current 2.3% yield of 30 - year treasury bonds. At the same time, as banks' liability costs continue to decline, allocating long - term bonds can cover liability costs through coupon payments [1][7]. Banks' Ability to Allocate Bonds - High - frequency data since the beginning of the year shows that the pressure on banks' liability side may be limited, which supports their continuous bond - allocation ability. Banks have been net repaying certificates of deposit, with a cumulative net repayment of 1.15 trillion yuan since early December last year. The inter - bank pledged repurchase trading volume has remained above 8 trillion yuan, indicating that banks are not short of liabilities [2][10]. Source of Banks' Bond - Allocation Funds - Some people think that the increase in banks' foreign exchange settlement volume has increased the source of funds, but in fact, without the central bank's foreign exchange settlement, banks' own foreign exchange settlement will not increase the source of funds. Currently, most of the foreign exchange settlement is from enterprises or individuals to banks, which will not increase banks' funds supply but may increase their demand for funds [2][3]. - The source of banks' bond - allocation funds at the beginning of the year is mainly due to the relatively stable deposits, with no obvious outflow. As real - estate sales weaken, residents' savings may flow from real estate to deposits, increasing the supply of deposits. In addition, credit and social financing may not be very strong at the beginning of the year, which also increases the demand for bond allocation [4][16].