玻璃纯碱周度报告-20260125

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Views - Glass: In the medium term, it is a volatile market. Short - term pressure comes from forward premium, inventory, and off - season factors. Long - term bullish drivers are anti - deflation, anti - involution, and potential production cuts. It will fluctuate between rising due to production cut expectations and falling due to weak demand and weak basis. [2] -纯碱: In the medium term, it is also a volatile market. The core pressure drivers are supply surplus, forward premium, and potential downstream production cuts. It is supported by cost when falling and restricted by supply surplus and glass industry production cuts when rising. [3] Summary by Directory Glass Supply - As of January 22, 2026, there were 296 glass production lines (199,500 tons/day) after excluding zombie lines, with 212 in operation and 84 cold - repaired. The daily output of float glass was 150,700 tons, unchanged from January 15. The industry's start - up rate was 71.62% and the capacity utilization rate was 75.57%, both unchanged from January 15. [2] - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired lines was 21,330 tons/day, and the total daily melting volume of newly ignited lines was 15,010 tons/day. There are potential new ignition lines with a total daily melting volume of 14,490 tons/day and potential old - line复产 lines with a total daily melting volume of 9,370 tons. There are also potential cold - repair lines with a total daily melting volume of 9,420 tons/day. [6][7][8] - The current in - production capacity is about 150,000 tons/day, and the peak capacity in 2021 was 178,000 tons/day. Usually, production cuts are likely to occur from the end of the fourth quarter to the first quarter. [11][12] Price and Profit - Most prices are stable with little change, and the transaction is average, slightly better on some days. The price in Shahe is about 1000 - 1020 yuan/ton, in central China's Hubei about 1020 - 1060 yuan/ton, and in eastern China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang about 1110 - 1250 yuan/ton. [16][20] - The profit of using petroleum coke as fuel is about - 2 yuan/ton, and the profits of using natural gas and coal as fuel are about - 158 and - 65 yuan/ton respectively. [23][27] Inventory and Downstream Start - up - Recent transactions have fluctuated, with inventory rising in some periods, but large - scale inventory fluctuations are unlikely. Shahe's inventory has decreased significantly due to previous price cuts. Hubei's inventory is still slightly high, and attention should be paid to post - Spring Festival inventory pressure. Before the Spring Festival, inventory fluctuations are expected to be small, and most areas' inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history. [30][31] - Regional arbitrage shows that prices in different regions are basically synchronized with little change in price differences. [32] Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - Recent market transactions have weakened, and this situation is expected to continue. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 10.5 - 11 yuan/square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated panels is 17.5 - 18.5 yuan/square meter, both unchanged from last week. [36][38] Capacity and Inventory - Market transactions have weakened, and inventory in some areas has increased. As of Thursday, the sample inventory days were about 36.69 days, a 5.77% decrease from the previous week, with the decline rate expanding by 2.70 percentage points. [40][46] Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - Some soda ash plants have resumed production, and the start - up rate has returned to a high level. The capacity utilization rate is 86.4%, down from 86.8% last week. The current weekly output of heavy soda ash is about 413,000 tons/week. In the context of high production and high inventory, either manufacturers should increase production cuts or the real - estate industry chain should recover to drive the recovery of glass demand and stocking. [50][51][52] Inventory - As of January 22, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5212 million tons, a decrease of 53,800 tons (3.42%) from last Thursday. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 824,500 tons, a decrease of 12,500 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 696,700 tons, a decrease of 41,300 tons. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory increased by 9,170 tons (6.41%). [55] Price and Profit - The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei are about 1130 - 1250 yuan/ton. The low - end price in Shahe is 1130 yuan/ton, and the market price has rebounded slightly. Most manufacturers' ex - factory prices are stable. [60][64][65] - There are several planned and under - construction soda ash projects in China, including Jinshan Chemical, Xiangheng Salt Chemical, Zhongyan Salt Industry Phase I, and Ningxia Risheng, with different expected production times. [68]