GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2026-01-25 13:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key companies in the coal industry, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Xinji Energy, while maintaining an "Overweight" rating for Pingmei Shenma Group [5][11]. Core Insights - The coal market is expected to face a dual weakness in supply and demand as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to a potential stabilization in coal prices [18][31]. - The report highlights the impact of AI on reshaping the U.S. coal market, indicating a rebound in demand that could influence global coal trade dynamics [2][3]. - Indonesia's government is tightening regulations on illegal mining, which may affect coal supply and prices globally [2][3]. Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index rose to 3743.77 points, an increase of 1.44%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.06 percentage points [78]. - The report notes that U.S. coal consumption is experiencing explosive growth, while exports are expected to slow down, leading to a tighter global coal trade balance [3][35]. - As of January 23, 2026, the price of thermal coal at northern ports was reported at 691 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 13 RMB/ton [31][19]. Key Areas of Analysis - Thermal Coal: The report indicates a rise in daily consumption and cost support, but high inventory levels may lead to price fluctuations [18][31]. - Coking Coal: The first round of price increases has faced resistance, and market sentiment is weakening due to rising costs impacting profitability for coking enterprises [38][49]. - Coke: The market is experiencing a pause in price increases, with a shift in sentiment leading to increased selling pressure from intermediaries [52][76]. Focused Companies - Key companies recommended for investment include China Shenhua, Yancoal Australia, and Shaanxi Coal and Energy, with a focus on those involved in smart mining and international coal markets [14][12]. - The report also highlights companies like Peabody (BTU) and China Qinfa, which are positioned to benefit from international market dynamics [14][3].