煤炭行业周报：地产政策多部门联动稳预期，非电需求有望修复-20260125

Investment Rating - The report rates the coal industry as "Overweight" [5] Core Insights - The coal sector has confirmed a cyclical bottom in Q2 2025, with a reversal in supply-demand dynamics and sufficient release of downward risks [2] - The report anticipates a recovery in non-electric coal demand due to supportive real estate policies and a rebound in the post-cycle industrial chain [5] - The total electricity consumption in 2025 is projected to reach 10.3682 trillion kWh, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [5] - The coal sector is expected to enter a new upward cycle starting in 2026, driven by increasing electricity demand from new energy and AI sectors [5] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of January 23, 2026, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port is 696 CNY/ton, down 11 CNY/ton (-1.6%) from the previous week [8][9] - The price of Q5000 coal at Huanghua Port is 613 CNY/ton, also down 10 CNY/ton (-1.6%) [8][9] - Domestic coal prices are showing mixed trends, with some regions experiencing price increases while others see declines [7] Coking Coal Data Tracking - As of January 23, 2026, the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port (Shanxi origin) is 1780 CNY/ton, up 30 CNY/ton (1.7%) from the previous week [5][39] - The price of coking coal at Lianyungang (Shanxi origin) is 1930 CNY/ton, up 36 CNY/ton (1.9%) [5][39] - The overall coking coal price in domestic markets has increased compared to the previous week, while overseas prices have generally decreased [46] Inventory and Supply Dynamics - As of January 23, 2026, the inventory at Qinhuangdao is 5.82 million tons, an increase of 320,000 tons (5.8%) from the previous week [23] - The total inventory at major northern ports is 35.29 million tons, down 468,000 tons (-1.3%) [23] - The overall supply of coal is expected to remain stable, with domestic production and imports continuing to decline [5] Market Performance - The coal sector outperformed the broader market, with a 1.44% increase compared to a 0.84% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [69] - Notable gainers include Dayou Energy (up 14.24%) and Anyuan Coal Industry (up 13.06%) [69]