KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2026-01-25 14:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that supply pressure for pigs is postponed, leading to a risk of price decline before and after the Spring Festival. The average price of live pigs in China as of January 23, 2026, is 12.92 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.15 CNY/kg but a year-on-year decrease of 2.40 CNY/kg [3][11] - The white feather chicken sector has transitioned from losses to profits, with prices slightly declining but profitability improving due to stable feed costs and weak supply elasticity [4][23] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Observations - The average weight of pigs remains high, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening barns has increased to 38%, creating a short-term support effect on prices. However, the risk of price decline exists due to potential supply release around the Spring Festival [11][12] - The demand side shows that the price of white strips has recovered to 17.15 CNY/kg, with the price difference between lean and fat pigs expanding, indicating improved slaughtering profits but weak volume performance [11][12] Market Performance - From January 19 to January 23, the agricultural sector underperformed the market by 0.43 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.84% and the agricultural index by 0.40% [5][27] - Key stocks such as Jingji Zhino (up 29.47%), Quanyuan (up 13.57%), and Honghui Fruits and Vegetables (up 9.94%) led the gains in the agricultural sector [5][27] Key News - As of the end of 2025, the number of breeding sows in China was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million, or 2.9%, which is within the normal holding capacity [33] - The Ministry of Finance announced that a guiding document to promote the high-quality development of agricultural insurance will be issued in 2026 [4][33] Price Tracking - As of January 23, 2026, the average price of live pigs is 12.97 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.19 CNY/kg. The average price of piglets is 23.54 CNY/kg, up 1.55 CNY/kg from the previous week [35] - The average price of white feather chicken is 7.50 CNY/kg, down 1.19% week-on-week, while the average price of chicken seedlings is 2.20 CNY, down 19.71% [38][35]