海外策略周报：地缘风险叠加财报密集期，美股波动或放大-20260125

Core Insights - Geopolitical risks are affecting market sentiment, leading to increased volatility in US stocks, while commodities are rising. The MSCI global index fell by 0.07%, with US indices such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and Russell 2000 experiencing slight declines of 0.4%, 0.1%, 0.5%, and 0.3% respectively [2][14][20] - The US PCE inflation for November 2025 showed a mild increase, aligning with expectations, while personal consumption expenditures remained robust despite a slight decline in income growth. The PCE and core PCE indices recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2][3][4] - The US labor market shows limited layoffs, with initial unemployment claims indicating stability. The GDP growth for Q3 2025 was revised up to an annualized rate of 4.4%, the highest in two years, driven by strong exports and reduced inventory drag [2][3][6] Market Overview - The US stock market is entering a period of intensive earnings reports, which may lead to heightened short-term volatility. However, the overall outlook for the year remains positive for US equities, with potential influences from upcoming earnings on Hong Kong stocks as well [2][29] - In the bond market, the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields remained stable at 4.24% and 3.60% respectively, while the dollar index decreased by 1.88% to 97.5. Commodities such as gold and silver saw significant increases of 8.30% and 14.80% respectively [19][20] - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a lack of catalysts, resulting in a fluctuating pattern. The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index both saw a decline of 0.4% [2][29][33] Policy Developments - Recent policy actions by the Trump administration include the cancellation of tariff threats against the EU and a framework agreement regarding Greenland, which may involve military and resource-related agreements. This has implications for market sentiment and geopolitical stability [2][8] - The US Supreme Court appears unlikely to support President Trump's attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, indicating potential stability in the Fed's independence [2][8] Sector Performance - In the US, the energy and materials sectors led gains, while healthcare and information technology sectors faced declines. Notably, lithium battery and social media concepts performed well, with respective increases of 9.2% and 6.0% [25][28] - In Hong Kong, the materials and energy sectors also showed strong performance, while the technology and healthcare sectors lagged. Concept indices such as smart TVs and gold jewelry saw significant gains [34][38]