固定收益周报：地方债发行提速，关注风格切换-20260125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report is optimistic about the equity market before the end of February, and focuses on whether the current growth - dominant style can gradually shift to a balanced or even value - dominant style. If this scenario occurs, the risk of bond market adjustment in February will increase [2][9][22]. - In the context of the marginal convergence of the national balance sheet, the top - down subjective allocation strategy focusing on position selection and style judgment will receive more attention and favor from the market [9][22]. - In the de - leveraging cycle, the margin of the stock - bond ratio in favor of equities is limited, and the probability of value being relatively dominant in style is higher [10][58]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis 3.1.1 Liability Side - In December 2025, the liability growth rate of the real sector was 8.4%, down from the previous value of 8.6%, in line with expectations. It is expected to continue to decline to around 8.3% in January 2026. The local bond issuance rhythm seems to have accelerated this week. If it continues in February, it may drive a slight rebound in the liability growth rate of the real sector, but the probability of further relaxation of the capital market in February is limited [2][17]. - The central bank's fourth - quarter meeting in 2025 indicated that the general direction of stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio remains unchanged, and it is waiting for the quantitative fiscal targets to be given at the Two Sessions in 2026 [2][17]. 3.1.2 Fiscal Policy - Last week, the net increase of government bonds (including national and local bonds) was 62.14 billion yuan, higher than the planned 50.75 billion yuan. Next week, the planned net increase is 14.13 billion yuan. The government liability growth rate at the end of December 2025 was 12.4%, down from the previous value of 13.1%. It is expected to rebound to around 12.5% in January 2026 and likely decline again in February [3][18]. 3.1.3 Monetary Policy - Last week, the capital trading volume decreased, the capital price decreased, and the term spread narrowed on a weekly average basis. After excluding seasonal effects, the capital market slightly tightened. The one - year Treasury bond yield oscillated upward, closing at 1.28% at the weekend. It is estimated that the lower limit of the one - year Treasury bond yield is about 1.3%, and the central value is around 1.4%. It is expected to cut interest rates by 10 basis points in 2026. The term spread between the ten - year and one - year Treasury bonds narrowed to 55 basis points. The bond market shows that the capital market has basically reached the limit of relaxation [3][18]. 3.1.4 Asset Side - In December 2025, the physical quantity data continued to run smoothly compared with November. It is necessary to focus on whether the economy can continue to stabilize or even improve marginally. The Two Sessions set the annual real economic growth target for 2025 at around 5%. Based on the deficit and deficit rate (4%), the annual nominal economic growth target is 4.9%. It is necessary to further observe whether a nominal economic growth rate of around 5% will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [4][19]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - Effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - Since 2011, China has entered a downward cycle of potential economic growth, which seems to have ended in the fourth quarter of 2024. Subsequently, China's profit cycle has entered a state of low - level narrow - range oscillation. The Chinese government put forward three policy goals in 2016: stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio, making the financial sector benefit the real economy, and ensuring that houses are for living in, not for speculation. Currently, the convergence of the liability side has not ended, but the space is limited [7][20]. - Overseas, China and the United States are in a state of equal - strength competition. If the valuation of the technology fields where the United States was previously leading undergoes a systematic re - evaluation, global funds may flow from the United States to China. Attention should be paid to whether the RMB exchange rate begins to gradually enter an appreciation channel. The risk preference may also enter a range - bound state following the profit [7][20][21]. - Last week, the capital market slightly tightened. The equity market rose as a whole, but value stocks continued to weaken, with the growth style remaining dominant. In terms of bond yields, the long - end declined slightly, and the short - end rose. The stock - bond cost - effectiveness slightly favored equities. The ten - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 1 basis point to 1.83%, the one - year Treasury bond yield increased by 4 basis points to 1.28%, the term spread narrowed to 55 basis points, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 2 basis points to 2.29%. The full - position equity strategy with equal allocation of growth and value performed well, and the broad - based rotation strategy outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.29 pct last week. Since its establishment in July 2024, the broad - based rotation strategy has underperformed the CSI 300 index by - 1.49 pct, with a maximum drawdown of 12.1% (compared with 15.7% for the CSI 300 index) [8][21]. - This week, the Shanghai 50 Index (60% position) and the CSI 1000 Index (40% position) are recommended. The broad - based index recommendation is a top - down subjective allocation strategy focusing on position selection and style judgment, which can accommodate a large amount of funds, has small fluctuations, and good liquidity [9][22]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation 3.3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market rose with shrinking trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.84%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.1%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.3%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, building materials, petroleum and petrochemicals, steel, basic chemicals, and non - ferrous metals had the largest increases, with weekly increases of 9.2%, 7.7%, 7.3%, 7.3%, and 6% respectively. Banks, communications, non - bank finance, food and beverages, and pharmaceuticals had the largest declines, with weekly declines of - 2.7%, - 2.1%, - 1.5%, - 1.4%, and - 0.4% respectively [28]. 3.3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of January 23, the top five industries in terms of crowding were electronics, power equipment, machinery, non - ferrous metals, and computers, with crowding degrees of 17.7%, 11.7%, 7.3%, 7.3%, and 6.7% respectively. The bottom five were beauty care, comprehensive, coal, social services, and textile and apparel, with crowding degrees of 0.2%, 0.2%, 0.4%, 0.6%, and 0.6% respectively. - This week, the top five industries with the largest increase in crowding were national defense and military industry, basic chemicals, power equipment, non - ferrous metals, and machinery, with increases of 1.4%, 1%, 0.8%, 0.7%, and 0.5% respectively. The top five with the largest decline were electronics, computers, communications, pharmaceuticals, and social services, with changes in crowding degrees of - 2%, - 1.8%, - 0.7%, - 0.3%, and - 0.2% respectively. - As of January 23, the crowding degrees of national defense and military industry, power equipment, electronics, non - ferrous metals, and machinery were at the 98.7%, 93.7%, 92.8%, 89.5%, and 86.9% quantiles since 2018 respectively, which were relatively high. Transportation, food and beverages, agriculture, forestry and animal husbandry, beauty care, and pharmaceuticals were at the 0.4%, 0.7%, 2.4%, 2.6%, and 2.9% quantiles respectively, which were relatively low. - This week, the average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market was 2.8 trillion yuan, up from 3.47 trillion yuan last week. Basic chemicals, real estate, public utilities, building materials, and steel had the highest year - on - year growth rates in trading volume, with changes of 7.5%, 7.3%, 4.4%, 3.5%, and 3.2% respectively. Media, computers, non - bank finance, social services, and commercial retail had the largest declines in trading volume, with changes of - 45.9%, - 44.6%, - 44.2%, - 38.5%, and - 37.3% respectively [29][32]. 3.3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, building materials, petroleum and petrochemicals, steel, basic chemicals, and non - ferrous metals had the largest increases in PE(TTM), with changes of 9.3%, 7.7%, 7.4%, 7.4%, and 6.1% respectively. Banks, communications, food and beverages, non - bank finance, and pharmaceuticals had the largest declines, with valuation changes of - 2.8%, - 2.1%, - 1.4%, - 1.4%, and - 0.5% respectively. - In terms of valuation - earnings matching, as of January 23, 2026, industries with relatively high full - year 2024 earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history include banks, insurance, coal, public utilities, transportation, pharmaceuticals, beauty care, new energy, and consumer electronics [35][36]. 3.3.4 Industry Prosperity - In terms of external demand, there were mixed trends. In December, the global manufacturing PMI decreased from 50.5 to 50.4, and the PMIs of major economies showed mixed trends. The CCFI index decreased by 0.09% week - on - week in the latest week. Port cargo throughput declined. South Korea's export growth rate rose to 13.4% in December and to 14.9% in the first 20 days of January. Vietnam's export growth rate rose from 15.8% in November to 23.9% in December. - In terms of domestic demand, the second - hand housing price rose in the latest week, and the quantity indicators showed mixed trends. The traffic volume of trucks on expressways increased. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries fitting continued to decline from September to October 2025, continued to rise from November to December, and slightly declined in January. Automobile trading volume was relatively weak compared to historical seasonality, new - home sales remained at a historical low, and second - hand home sales were relatively weak compared to historical seasonality. As of January 18, the national urban second - hand housing listing price index rose 0.27% compared to last week. As of January 2, the producer price index rose 0.3% week - on - week [39]. 3.3.5 Public Offering Market Review - In the third week of January (January 19 - 23), most active public offering equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. The weekly growth rates of the 10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% quantiles were 4.7%, 3.5%, 2.7%, and 1.5% respectively, while the CSI 300 declined 0.6% weekly. - According to the latest net value and share estimates, as of January 23, the net asset value of active public offering equity funds was 4.06 trillion yuan, up from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [55]. 3.3.6 Industry Recommendation - In the de - leveraging cycle, the margin of the stock - bond ratio in favor of equities is limited, and the probability of value being relatively dominant in style is higher. Red - chip stocks are generally expected to have three characteristics: no balance - sheet expansion, good earnings, and survival. Combining these three characteristics with the under - allocation in the public offering's fourth - quarter report, the recommended A + H red - chip portfolio includes 13 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - share stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banks, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation. Some industries with a large number of stocks, such as banks, have been appropriately streamlined [10][58].