Orient Securities·2026-01-25 14:24Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - Liquidity expectations have upgraded, leading to intensified trading. Recent optimistic interest rate cut expectations have resurfaced, driving both precious and industrial metals to break through previous levels. In the past week, the negative feedback for copper and aluminum has significantly weakened, and improvements in the real economy may be observed under high price conditions. Overall, the bullish trend for industrial products remains unchanged under the support of domestic and international policies [3][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The report indicates an upgrade in liquidity expectations and a continuation of intense trading. The probability of BlackRock executive Riedel being elected as the Federal Reserve Chairman has surged to 54%. The optimistic expectations for interest rate cuts have reignited, pushing precious and industrial metals to new highs. Although copper and aluminum inventories continue to accumulate, the pace of accumulation has slowed, and the negative feedback from downstream processing has significantly diminished, with operating rates beginning to recover [9][13]. 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 6.03%, ranking fourth among all industries [28]. The report lists several investment targets, including Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988, Buy) and Zijin Mining (601899, Buy) [4]. 3. Precious Metals - Precious metals are experiencing intense liquidity trading, awaiting the confirmation of the Federal Reserve Chairman nomination. As of January 23, SHFE gold rose by 8.07% to 1,115.64 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold increased by 7.54% to 4,036.00 USD per ounce. The report notes that the market expects limited upward pressure on precious metals in the short term due to anticipated interest rate stabilization [14][30]. 4. Copper - The report highlights renewed support for copper prices due to supply disruptions. As of January 23, SHFE copper rose by 0.57% to 101,340 CNY per ton, and LME copper increased by 2.44% to 13,115 USD per ton. Supply tightness continues, with recent strikes in Chile affecting copper concentrate availability [17][70]. 5. Aluminum - The report indicates a reduction in negative feedback for aluminum, with demand showing marginal recovery. As of January 23, SHFE aluminum rose by 1.53% to 24,290 CNY per ton, and LME aluminum increased by 1.12% to 3,169 USD per ton. The processing operating rate has risen by 0.7 percentage points to 60.9% [16][83].