Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The report discusses the "Triffin Dilemma" and the decline of the global circulation of the US dollar, highlighting that the US is the primary trade deficit country, contributing significantly to global imbalances [2][6] - It notes that the dollar's global circulation has led to a situation where the US faces a contradiction between its hegemony and the dollar's dominance, potentially threatening its long-term power [6][7] - The report emphasizes the need for China to focus on domestic demand and consumption transformation to reduce reliance on external factors [7] Group 2: Currency and Foreign Exchange Market - In 2025, the US dollar index experienced its largest decline in eight years, dropping over 10% in the first half of the year, marking the biggest drop since 1974 [3][8] - The report indicates that the RMB appreciated against the dollar in 2025, contrasting with previous years of depreciation, and highlights a reversal in the domestic foreign exchange supply-demand relationship [8][9] - It suggests that the RMB's exchange rate may remain stable with potential for fluctuations, influenced by various factors [9] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Economic Policy - The report identifies a decline in consumer spending willingness, with the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) dropping to 0.61 by the end of 2025, indicating a decrease in consumer confidence [9][10] - It highlights that traditional industries and small to medium enterprises are facing challenges in job absorption, which could further impact consumer spending [10][11] - The "Promoting Consumption" initiative is emphasized as a key strategy for 2026, focusing on increasing residents' income and enhancing consumption capacity [11] Group 4: Industry Performance and Investment Opportunities - The report indicates that the storage industry is entering a new cycle driven by AI and data expansion, with prices expected to continue rising due to tight supply and high demand for new technologies [34][35] - It highlights the high growth potential in the space photovoltaic sector, driven by significant expansions in solar capacity by US companies and increasing satellite deployments [37][41] - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in the storage supply chain and those engaged in space photovoltaic technology, suggesting a strong investment outlook in these areas [36][41]
中银晨会聚焦-20260126
Bank of China Securities·2026-01-25 23:30