东吴证券晨会纪要2026-01-26-20260126

Macro Strategy - The report highlights the investment value of the GF CSI Media ETF (512980.SH), which is closely tracking the CSI Media Index (399971.SZ) and has a management fee of 0.5% per year and a custody fee of 0.1% per year. As of January 16, 2026, the ETF has a circulation scale of 10.759 billion yuan and an annualized return of 29.47% with a volatility ratio of 0.89, indicating reasonable risk control capabilities [1][12] - The underlying index focuses on AI applications, with a significant weight of 31.43% in GEO concept stocks, including key companies like BlueFocus, Yanshan Technology, and Kunlun Wanwei. The top ten weighted stocks account for 51.52% of the index, indicating a high concentration of component stocks [1][12] - The report emphasizes that the current media bull market is driven by AI technology transformation and the assetization of data factors, contrasting with the previous bull market driven by mobile internet traffic. The media sector's valuation is at a historical low, providing a high margin of safety for investors [1][12] Non-Bank Financial Industry - The report indicates that the non-bank financial sector is experiencing an upward trend in market conditions, with public fund holdings in the sector increasing to 2.42% by the end of 2025, up 0.82 percentage points from the previous quarter. However, the sector remains underweight compared to the market [5][16] - The report recommends key stocks such as China Life, Ping An, New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, and CITIC Securities, highlighting their potential to benefit from the improving market environment [5][16] - The average daily trading volume of equity funds reached 34.444 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 155%, indicating a significant improvement in market activity [5][16] Real Estate Industry - The report notes that the real estate market is gradually stabilizing, with a narrowing decline in sales and construction metrics compared to 2024. The total development investment in 2025 was 8.3 trillion yuan, down 17.2% year-on-year, while the new construction area was 5.9 million square meters, down 20.4% [6][18][19] - Sales figures show a cumulative sales area of 8.8 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, with a cumulative sales amount of 8.4 trillion yuan, down 12.6%. The decline in sales is narrowing, particularly in first-tier cities [6][18][19] - Investment recommendations include China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, and New City Holdings, with a focus on property management companies like China Resources Mixc Life and Greentown Service [6][18][19] Environmental Industry - The report discusses the growth potential of the waste incineration sector, particularly in Southeast Asia and India, where an estimated 500,000 tons per day of waste incineration capacity is expected, corresponding to an investment scale of approximately 250 billion yuan [7][20] - Companies like Weiming Environmental and Sanfeng Environment are highlighted for their overseas expansion and operational stability, with significant revenue increases driven by high electricity prices and processing fees in international markets [7][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of cost control in overseas projects, with potential for significant profit margins compared to domestic projects, particularly in Indonesia where new projects are expected to yield higher returns [7][20]