首华燃气（300483）：单四季度利润创历史新高，业绩拐点已到

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [8] Core Insights - The company disclosed its 2025 earnings forecast, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 150 million and 200 million yuan, a significant turnaround from a loss of 710.95 million yuan in the previous year [2][6] - The net profit, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is projected to be between 146 million and 196 million yuan [2][6] - The company received significant subsidies for coalbed methane production, contributing positively to profits [13] - The production projects are progressing steadily, with a projected production increase of 98% year-on-year in 2025 [13] - The rapid growth in gas production is expected to lead to a decrease in production costs [13] - Coalbed methane and other unconventional gas sources are becoming important growth drivers for natural gas supply in China [13] Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast - The company anticipates a net profit of 150 million to 200 million yuan for 2025, compared to a loss of 710.95 million yuan in the previous year [2][6] - The expected net profit after excluding non-recurring items is between 146 million and 196 million yuan [2][6] Production and Cost Insights - The company is set to experience a 98% year-on-year increase in production volume in 2025, with daily gas production expected to exceed 3 million cubic meters by the end of the year [13] - The cost of gas production is projected to decrease due to advancements in technology and operational efficiencies [13] Market Outlook - Unconventional gas sources, particularly coalbed methane, are expected to play a crucial role in enhancing China's natural gas supply security [13] - The company’s projects are strategically located near significant gas fields, which may provide further production guidance and economic benefits [13] Financial Projections - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.57 yuan, 1.41 yuan, and 2.56 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 30.14X, 12.13X, and 6.70X [13]