农产品早报2026-01-26：五矿期货农产品早报-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the current raw sugar price has fallen below the support of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. After the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season in April this year, there is a possibility of reducing the sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio. After the northern hemisphere begins to finish the sugar - cane crushing in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. The supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing. As the sugar price drops to a low level, the short - term downward space may be limited, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [4]. - For cotton, in the medium - to - long - term, with the reduction of the planting area in the new year and the positive macro - economic expectations in the future, the cotton price still has room to rise. However, due to the excessive short - term increase, it needs time to digest. It is recommended to wait for the price to pull back and then choose an opportunity to go long [9]. - For protein meal, the January USDA report data is slightly bearish as the production estimates of the US and Brazil are slightly revised upwards, and the US export volume is slightly revised downwards. However, the overall balance sheet situation is still better than that in the 2024/25 season. Recently, China has increased its purchase of US soybeans, which supports the CBOT US soybean price but is bearish for the domestic price. The bearish impact of the significant reduction of the import tariff on Canadian rapeseed has been digested. Overall, the protein meal price may continue to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [13][18]. - For eggs, the pre - festival stocking sentiment has boosted the spot price increase beyond expectations. The near - month contracts are driven to fluctuate strongly. However, the overall supply is still abundant, and the demand is about to meet expectations. The near - term contracts have post - festival attributes and may mainly fluctuate. In the future, more attention should be paid to the pressure after the rebound. The far - end contracts are affected by the peak of production capacity and have long - term positive expectations. However, after the profit is given too early, the realization path is still uncertain. Pay attention to the selling pressure after the over - valued situation [21]. - For pigs, the demand support and the market's reluctance to sell due to the high fat - to - standard price difference limit the short - term downward space of the spot price. However, the expectation of inventory accumulation and the upcoming pre - festival supply release have led to the early weakness of the futures market. Considering the large supply pressure after the Spring Festival in the first half of the year and the expectation of inventory post - ponement, the futures discount is logical. There may still be short - selling opportunities after the rebound. Due to the limited reduction of production capacity, the improvement space of the far - end fundamentals has been revised downwards. Pay attention to the support at the lower level after the long - term decline [24]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Sugar Market Information - On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng sugar was 5,180 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton or 0.43% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,270 - 5,310 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. - In the second half of December 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 2.171 million tons of sugar - cane, a year - on - year increase of 26.60%. The sugar output was 56,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.93%. The sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio was 21.24%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points compared with the same period last year. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons year - on - year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, an increase of 310,000 tons year - on - year. In December, China imported a total of 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder. In 2025, the cumulative imports were 1.1888 million tons. As of January 15, 2026, India's national sugar output had reached 15.909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase compared with 13.044 million tons in the same period last year. The number of sugar mills still in operation increased from 500 in the same period last year to 518 [3]. Strategy - Wait for the northern hemisphere to finish the sugar - cane crushing in February. After the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. The supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing. As the sugar price drops to a low level, the short - term downward space may be limited, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [4]. Cotton Market Information - On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng cotton was 14,695 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton or 0.24% from the previous trading day. The spot price of China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,870 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [6]. - In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons year - on - year. As of the week of January 16, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.6%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week and an increase of 8.6 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.69 million tons, an increase of 380,000 tons year - on - year. The January 2025/26 global cotton production forecast was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points from the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points compared with the previous year. The January US cotton production forecast was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons from the December forecast. The export forecast remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points. The Brazilian cotton production forecast remained unchanged at 4.08 million tons, the Indian production forecast was revised down by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons, and the Chinese production forecast was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. From January 8 to January 15, the US current - year cotton export sales were 97,300 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.72 million tons, a decrease of 166,000 tons year - on - year. Among them, the export to China that week was 3,300 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 88,600 tons, a decrease of 72,100 tons year - on - year [7][8]. Strategy - In the medium - to - long - term, with the reduction of the planting area in the new year and the positive macro - economic expectations in the future, the cotton price still has room to rise. However, due to the excessive short - term increase, it needs time to digest. It is recommended to wait for the price to pull back and then choose an opportunity to go long [9]. Protein Meal Market Information - On Friday, the protein meal futures price fell slightly. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2,751 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton or 0.61% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2,235 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton or 0.67% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Dongguan soybean meal was 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price of Huangpu rapeseed meal was 2,440 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [11]. - From January 8 to January 15, the US exported 2.45 million tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative soybean exports were 33.03 million tons. Among them, the US exported 1.3 million tons of soybeans to China that week, and the current - year cumulative exports to China were 9.42 million tons. From January 9 to January 16, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.5 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous week. The sample soybean port inventory was 7.72 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous week. The sample soybean oil mill operating rate was 55.97%, an increase of 6.47 percentage points year - on - year. The sample oil mill soybean meal inventory was 840,000 tons, a decrease of 86,000 tons from the previous week. The January 2025/26 global soybean production forecast was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 31.3 million tons from the December forecast and a decrease of 14.8 million tons compared with the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points from December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points compared with the previous year. The January US soybean production forecast was 115.99 million tons, an increase of 2.38 million tons from the December forecast and a decrease of 30.5 million tons compared with the previous year. The January Brazilian production forecast was 178 million tons, an increase of 30 million tons from the December forecast and an increase of 65 million tons compared with the previous year. The January Argentine production forecast was 48.5 million tons, unchanged from the December forecast and a decrease of 26 million tons compared with the previous year. In addition, in the January forecast, the US export volume was slightly revised down by 16.3 million tons to 428.6 million tons [12][17]. Strategy - The January USDA report data is slightly bearish as the production estimates of the US and Brazil are slightly revised upwards, and the US export volume is slightly revised downwards. However, the overall balance sheet situation is still better than that in the 2024/25 season. Recently, China has increased its purchase of US soybeans, which supports the CBOT US soybean price but is bearish for the domestic price. The bearish impact of the significant reduction of the import tariff on Canadian rapeseed has been digested. Overall, the protein meal price may continue to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [13][18]. Fats and Oils Market Information - On Friday, the fats and oils futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 8,094 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.12% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 8,910 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton or 0.38% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 8,991 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton or 0.12% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Zhangjiagang first - grade soybean oil was 8,620 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,930 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,750 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The market information about soybean exports, arrivals, port inventory, oil mill operating rate, and production forecasts is the same as that of protein meal [15][17]. Strategy - The January USDA report data is slightly bearish as the production estimates of the US and Brazil are slightly revised upwards, and the US export volume is slightly revised downwards. However, the overall balance sheet situation is still better than that in the 2024/25 season. Recently, China has increased its purchase of US soybeans, which supports the CBOT US soybean price but is bearish for the domestic price. The bearish impact of the significant reduction of the import tariff on Canadian rapeseed has been digested. Overall, the protein meal price may continue to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [18]. Eggs Market Information - Over the weekend, the domestic egg price was mainly stable, with some local areas experiencing a slight decline. The large - sized egg price in Heishan remained at 3.5 yuan/jin, the small - sized egg price in Guantao dropped 0.05 yuan to 3.51 yuan/jin, and the price in Xishui remained at 3.84 yuan/jin. The supply was normal, and the supply of small - sized eggs was slightly tight. The Spring Festival demand was gradually starting, and the market sales speed was fast. However, as the egg price rose to a phased high, the risk - aversion sentiment of traders increased, and there was a risk of a slight decline in the egg price in some areas [20]. Strategy - The pre - festival stocking sentiment has boosted the spot price increase beyond expectations. The near - month contracts are driven to fluctuate strongly. However, the overall supply is still abundant, and the demand is about to meet expectations. The near - term contracts have post - festival attributes and may mainly fluctuate. In the future, more attention should be paid to the pressure after the rebound. The far - end contracts are affected by the peak of production capacity and have long - term positive expectations. However, after the profit is given too early, the realization path is still uncertain. Pay attention to the selling pressure after the over - valued situation [21]. Pigs Market Information - Over the weekend, the domestic pig price generally rose, with some local areas experiencing a slight decline. The average price in Henan rose 0.14 yuan to 13.34 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan rose 0.06 yuan to 12.77 yuan/kg. The overall slaughter volume may increase in the second half of the month. Coupled with the general demand in the southern market, the pig price trend will be mainly weak and stable. However, after entering February, due to the expected tightening of supply and the release of pre - festival stocking demand, the pig price still has room to rise [23]. Strategy - The demand support and the market's reluctance to sell due to the high fat - to - standard price difference limit the short - term downward space of the spot price. However, the expectation of inventory accumulation and the upcoming pre - festival supply release have led to the early weakness of the futures market. Considering the large supply pressure after the Spring Festival in the first half of the year and the expectation of inventory post - ponement, the futures discount is logical. There may still be short - selling opportunities after the rebound. Due to the limited reduction of production capacity, the improvement space of the far - end fundamentals has been revised downwards. Pay attention to the support at the lower level after the long - term decline [24].