能源化工日报-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although geopolitical premiums have dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, but wait for OPEC's export decline when prices fall for validation. Currently, it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Regarding methanol, the current valuation is low, and its outlook for the coming year is marginally improving with limited downside. Despite short - term negative pressures, due to recent geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [4]. - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differences has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are approaching. So, it is advisable to short on rallies [6]. - In the case of rubber, with a good overall upward atmosphere in commodities but weak seasonality, adopt a neutral approach, trade short - term according to the market, and enter and exit quickly. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, consider a short - selling strategy. Partially build a position for buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is supply - strong and demand - weak, with poor fundamentals. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, pre - export rush, and strong commodity sentiment support it, but in the medium term, before significant production cuts in the industry, the strategy is to short on rallies [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is currently at a relatively high neutral level, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly restored, it is advisable to gradually take profits [20]. - Regarding polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and crude oil prices may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene is rising, but the PE valuation still has downward space. In the seasonal off - peak season, the demand - side overall operating rate is oscillating downward [23]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high overall inventory pressure, in the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction. In the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - led downward trends to production - mismatch issues. It is advisable to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [26]. - For PX, currently maintaining a high load with many downstream PTA maintenance activities, it is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, the supply - demand structure with downstream PTA is strong, and there are medium - term opportunities to follow crude oil and buy on dips [29]. - Regarding PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. In the short - term, beware of the risk of processing fee corrections, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Pay attention to medium - term opportunities to buy on dips [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still relatively high, and the port inventory - accumulation cycle will continue. In the medium - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction, and the valuation needs to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Information: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 4.40 yuan/barrel, a 0.99% decline, at 441.90 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil closed up 54.00 yuan/ton, a 2.09% increase, at 2643.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 9.00 yuan/ton, a 0.29% decline, at 3116.00 yuan/ton. US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.60 million barrels to 426.05 million barrels, a 0.85% increase; SPR replenished 0.81 million barrels to 414.48 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 5.98 million barrels to 256.99 million barrels, a 2.38% increase; diesel inventories increased by 3.35 million barrels to 132.59 million barrels, a 2.59% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.59 million barrels to 24.13 million barrels, a 2.37% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.79 million barrels to 42.35 million barrels, a 1.83% decrease [1][2][7]. - Strategy View: Although geopolitical premiums have dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, but currently, wait for OPEC's export decline when prices fall for validation. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Methanol - Market Information: No specific market price information provided. - Strategy View: The current valuation is low, and its outlook for the coming year is marginally improving with limited downside. Despite short - term negative pressures, due to recent geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [4]. Urea - Market Information: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast China remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 48 yuan/ton. The main futures contract increased by 12 yuan/ton, reporting 1788 yuan/ton [5]. - Strategy View: The current situation of internal - external price differences has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are approaching. So, it is advisable to short on rallies [6]. Rubber - Market Information: Commodities and chemicals as a whole rose, and rubber prices rebounded oscillating. Butadiene drove up rubber and butadiene rubber prices. The reasons for the sharp rise in butadiene rubber may be large - scale allocation of chemical long positions by macro funds, expected increase in naphtha and butadiene costs due to naphtha consumption tax policies leading to subsequent production cut expectations, and increased marginal exports of butadiene due to spot demand in South Korea, with the butadiene inventory in East China ports dropping significantly from 44,600 tons to 34,500 tons. The long - side of natural rubber RU believes that rubber production in Southeast Asia may be limited, rubber prices usually rise in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve; the short - side believes that macro expectations are uncertain, supply is increasing, and demand is in the seasonal off - peak season. As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.84%, up 2.30 percentage points from last week and 2.78 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 74.35%, up 6.35 percentage points from last week but down 4.09 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 11, 2026, China's total social inventory of natural rubber was 1.256 million tons, a 1.9% increase from the previous period. Among them, the inventory of dark - colored rubber increased by 2.5% to 835,000 tons, and the inventory of light - colored rubber increased by 0.8% to 421,000 tons. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 563,900 (+19,600) tons. In the spot market, Thai standard mixed rubber was at 15,200 (+300) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1,930 (+40) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1,930 (+40) US dollars, butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 10,600 (+800) yuan, and cis - polybutadiene in North China was 12,100 (+600) yuan [10][11][12]. - Strategy View: With a good overall upward atmosphere in commodities but weak seasonality, adopt a neutral approach, trade short - term according to the market, and enter and exit quickly. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, consider a short - selling strategy. Partially build a position for buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13]. PVC - Market Information: The PVC05 contract rose 72 yuan, reporting 4921 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4650 (+80) yuan/ton, the basis was - 271 (+8) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 111 (+3) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide price in Wuhai was reported at 2500 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 820 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 710 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 622 (0) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.7%, a 0.9% decline from the previous period; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80%, unchanged from the previous period, and the ethylene method was 75.7%, a 3.1% decline from the previous period. The overall downstream operating rate was 44.9%, a 1% increase from the previous period. The in - plant inventory was 308,000 tons (- 3,000), and the social inventory was 1.178 million tons (+33,000) [15]. - Strategy View: The domestic supply - demand situation is supply - strong and demand - weak, with poor fundamentals. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, pre - export rush, and strong commodity sentiment support it, but in the medium term, before significant production cuts in the industry, the strategy is to short on rallies [17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: In terms of fundamentals, the cost - side price of pure benzene in East China was 5930 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6056 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 126 yuan/ton, a reduction of 41 yuan/ton. In the spot - futures market, the spot price of styrene was 7700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7708 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton; the basis was - 8 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 86 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 185 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.5 yuan/ton; the non - integrated EB device profit was 117.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.85 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a reduction of 19 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the upstream operating rate was 69.63%, a 1.23% decline; the inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.71 million tons to 93,500 tons. On the demand side, the weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.40%, a 0.49% increase; the PS operating rate was 57.30%, a 0.10% decline, the EPS operating rate was 58.71%, a 4.65% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 66.80%, a 3.00% decline [19]. - Strategy View: The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently at a relatively high neutral level, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly restored, it is advisable to gradually take profits [20]. Polyethylene - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract was 6865 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6775 yuan/ton, an increase of 135 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 90 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 84 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 45,100 tons to 350,300 tons, and the inventory of traders remained unchanged at 29,200 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decline. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 22 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan increase from the previous period [22]. - Strategy View: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and crude oil prices may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene is rising, but the PE valuation still has downward space. In the seasonal off - peak season, the demand - side overall operating rate is oscillating downward [23]. Polypropylene - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract was 6656 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6575 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 81 yuan/ton, a weakening of 17 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decline. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 36,700 tons to 431,000 tons, the inventory of traders decreased by 10,800 tons to 193,900 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 500 tons to 70,600 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decline. The LL - PP spread was 209 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan increase from the previous period. The PP5 - 9 spread was - 32 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan reduction from the previous period [24][25]. - Strategy View: In the context of weak supply and demand with high overall inventory pressure, in the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction. In the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - led downward trends to production - mismatch issues. It is advisable to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [26]. PX - Market Information: The PX03 contract rose 118 yuan, reporting 7508 yuan, the PX CFR increased by 16 US dollars, reporting 923 US dollars. After conversion according to the central parity rate of the RMB, the basis was - 69 yuan (+1), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 118 yuan (- 40). The PX operating rate in China was 88.9%, a 0.5% decline from the previous period; the Asian operating rate was 81%, a 0.4% increase from the previous period. Domestically, Zhejiang Petrochemical further reduced its load, and overseas, the South Korean GS device restarted. The PTA operating rate was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period. In terms of imports, South Korea's PX exports to China in the first and middle ten - days of January were 215,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,000 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of November was 4.46 million tons, a 60,000 - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 340 US dollars (+10), the South Korean PX - MX was 146 US dollars (0), and the naphtha crack spread was 100 US dollars (+15) [28]. - Strategy View: Currently maintaining a high load with many downstream PTA maintenance activities, it is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, the supply - demand structure with downstream PTA is strong, and there are medium - term opportunities to follow crude oil and buy on dips [29]. PTA - Market Information: The PTA05 contract rose 150 yuan, reporting 5448 yuan, the East China spot price increased by 130 yuan, reporting 5285 yuan, the basis was - 78 yuan (- 7), and the 5 - 9 spread was 40 yuan (+6). The PTA operating rate was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period. The downstream operating rate was 86.4%, a 1.9% decline from the previous period. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 4% to 66%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 6% to 49%. In terms of inventory, on January 16, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.045 million tons, a 40