金信期货日刊-20260126

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The futures price of soda ash is rising, and the Shenzhen Component Index is expected to reach a new high. Gold shows an accelerating upward trend, while iron ore, glass, and pulp are in a weak state. Methanol futures are oscillating strongly [3][5][11][14][16][19][21] Summary by Related Catalogs Soda Ash Futures - Macro sentiment has warmed up. The central bank has released signals of loose monetary policy, increasing the expectation of stable growth. Funds have flowed back to commodities, and the linkage of related varieties such as glass has driven the fermentation of long sentiment in soda ash futures [3] - Cost support has been strengthened. The rebound of energy prices such as coal has pushed up the production cost of soda ash. Most ammonia - alkali and combined - alkali enterprises are in a loss state. The cost line of natural alkali is about 1100 - 1150 yuan/ton. Enterprises' willingness to support prices has increased, and the spot quotation has been slightly raised, supporting the futures price [3] - There are short - term disturbances in supply. Some enterprises have carried out temporary maintenance, causing phased fluctuations in the industry's operating rate. Coupled with the tight logistics capacity before the Spring Festival, the transportation of goods from the main production areas has been delayed, and the short - term liquidity in the sales areas has been tight, magnifying market concerns about supply [3] - There has been a phased reduction in inventory. As of January 22, the total inventory of manufacturers was 1.5212 million tons, a weekly decrease of 23,000 tons. Although it is still at a historical high, the short - term de - stocking trend has alleviated market anxiety about inventory accumulation, and combined with the pre - festival replenishment expectation, it has promoted the price rebound [3] - There has been active capital game. Long - position funds in the futures market have entered the market intensively. The trading volume and open interest of the main contract have increased simultaneously. Capital speculation has magnified the short - term price increase, forming a pattern of rising volume and price [3] Stock Index Futures - The Shenzhen Component Index is expected to reach a new high. In operation, it is recommended to buy on dips rather than chase the rise [5] Gold - After an oscillating adjustment, gold has reached a new high, with an increasing volatility and an accelerating upward trend. In operation, it is recommended to take long positions [11] Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of loose supply has further fermented. On the demand side, except for exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of bottom - seeking, and domestic demand support is weak. Technically, it pulled up again when approaching the important lower support today. In the short term, it can be regarded as an oscillating trend [14][15] Glass - The daily melting volume has increased slightly, and the inventory has started to accumulate again. The main driving factors are the policy - side stimulus policies and the anti - involution policies for the clearance of the supply side. Technically, it has rebounded slightly, but the trend remains unchanged, and it is recommended to maintain an oscillating and bearish view [16][17] Methanol - Methanol futures have recently shown an oscillating and strong pattern. The main contract closed up 2.96% to 2298 yuan/ton. The short - term driving factors are the expected contraction of Iranian imports and the reduction of port inventory. In the medium term, it is suppressed by the low profit of downstream MTO and the high domestic operating rate. In the long term, there is a game between cost support and the recovery of imports. It is recommended to seize long - position opportunities [19] Pulp - As of January 22, 2026, the inventory of mainstream port samples of Chinese pulp was 2.068 million tons, an increase of 54,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.7%. The inventory has continued to accumulate in this cycle, and the port sample inventory has shown a cumulative trend for three consecutive weeks. The futures market has recently shown a weak oscillating trend [21]