能繁去化不及预期，供应压制磨底延续

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The current pig market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Short - term market sentiment fluctuations lead to wide price swings, and prices still face downward pressure in the medium to long term [8][78]. - The inventory of breeding sows has reached a new low, but it is still 1.6% higher than the reasonable industry level. The market expects the pace of capacity reduction to accelerate [8][78]. - The core contradiction in the pig market is that the reduction of effective pig production capacity is weaker than the decline in the number of breeding sows. The effect of capacity reduction cannot be realized in the short term, and the slaughter volume remains high. The release of previously back - pressured pigs in late January will increase short - term supply pressure [8][78]. - The boosting effect on the demand side is lagging. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, pre - festival stocking has not fully started, and downstream procurement willingness will decline significantly after the festival, restricting the upward movement of pig prices [8][78]. - In the short term, positive market sentiment will drive a slight recovery in pig prices, but the fundamental supply - demand pattern has not changed substantially, and the medium - to - long - term upward space for pig prices may be limited, with a risk of subsequent decline [8][78]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review 3.1.1. Futures Price - Concerns about the continued pressure of pig slaughter in the first half of the year led to concentrated selling in the futures market. The main LH2603 contract of live hog futures closed at 11,565 yuan/ton last Friday, up 0.26% [5][14]. 3.1.2. Spot Price - Last week, the pig price first rose and then fell, with the weekly average price moving up. The national average live hog slaughter price was 12.87 yuan/kg, a 1.42% increase from the previous week [7][18]. - The average weekly price of 7kg piglets was 343.33 yuan/head, a 11.09% increase from the previous week and a 28.94% decrease year - on - year. The increase was due to farmers' pre - festival early replenishment to control costs, rigid replenishment by group farms, and capacity reduction in some regions [21]. - The average price of 50kg binary sows was 1431 yuan/head, with low replenishment enthusiasm among reserve farmers and a light trading atmosphere [24]. - The price of culled sows increased with the recovery of pig prices. The national average price was 9.77 yuan/kg, a 2.84% increase from the previous week and a 12.38% decrease year - on - year. Farmers were reluctant to cull sows [27]. 3.1.3. Spread Situation - Since January, the basis between live hog futures and spot has continued to widen. As of last Friday, the basis was 1575 yuan/ton. The spot price was supported by the pre - Spring Festival consumption peak, while the futures 03 contract faced a seasonal consumption off - season after the Spring Festival, with expected increased slaughter and a supply - demand pattern that could suppress prices [30]. - The national standard - fat spread was - 0.75 yuan/kg last week, a 0.11 yuan/kg increase from the previous week. Cold weather increased the consumption of large pigs and external shipments, supporting the price of fat pigs, while the standard pig market was weak during the peak season [33]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Supply Side - Breeding Sow Inventory: At the end of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a 2.9% decrease from the previous month, the lowest in the past five years but still 101.6% of the normal level. In December 2025, the inventory of breeding sows in sample large - scale farms was 5.0202 million, a 0.18% decrease from the previous month and a 0.47% decrease year - on - year; in small and medium - sized farms, it was 167,660, a 1.19% decrease from the previous month and a 1.54% decrease year - on - year [37][40]. - Live Hog Inventory: At the end of 2025, the national live hog inventory was 429.67 million, a 0.5% increase from the end of 2024. In December 2025, the inventory of 7 - 49kg piglets accounted for 32.97%, 50 - 89kg pigs accounted for 29.03%, 90 - 140kg pigs accounted for 36.50%, and pigs over 140kg accounted for 1.51%, with month - on - month changes of 0.00%, - 0.07%, - 0.12%, and 4.46% respectively [47]. - Pork Production: Since 2024, supported by industrial policies and the development of large - scale farming, pork production has been on the rise. In 2024, it was 57.06 million tons, and in 2025, it increased to 59.38 million tons, a 4.1% increase and a record high [51]. - Sow Culling: In December 2025, due to sporadic pig diseases and the optimization of sow production capacity, the culling volume of breeding sows in large - scale farms was 115,814, a 3.06% increase from the previous month and an 18.80% increase year - on - year; in small and medium - sized farms, it was 11,518, a 0.75% decrease from the previous month and a 5.47% increase year - on - year [54]. - Live Hog Slaughter: In December 2025, the slaughter rhythm of breeding enterprises accelerated. The slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms was 11.7829 million, a 3.68% increase from the previous month and a 6.64% increase year - on - year; in small and medium - sized farms, it was 548,000, a 6.39% increase from the previous month and a 13.67% increase year - on - year. As of January 20, 2026, the overall slaughter progress of sample enterprises was 64.94%, slower than expected [59][63]. 3.2.2. Demand Side - Slaughtering Enterprise Operating Rate: Last week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 35.18%, a 0.73% decrease from the previous week and an 8.19% decrease year - on - year. The increase in procurement costs and bad weather led to the decline [67]. - Frozen Product Storage Rate and Fresh Sales Rate: Last week, the fresh sales rate of domestic slaughtering enterprises was 87.43%, a 0.18% decrease from the previous week; the frozen product storage rate was 17.3%, a 0.18% decrease from the previous week. The market did not have inventory backlogs, and the supply - demand rhythm was relatively stable [71]. 3.2.3. Cost - Profit Situation - Last week, the domestic pig - breeding industry turned profitable, and the pressure on farmers was relieved. The average profit per head in the self - breeding and self - raising model was 63.5 yuan, and in the model of purchasing piglets, it was 37.85 yuan [77]. 3.3. Market Outlook - The short - term market sentiment will drive a slight recovery in pig prices, but the medium - to - long - term upward space is limited, and there is a risk of subsequent decline [8][78]. 3.4. Operation Strategy - Single - side Trading: Temporarily wait and see in the short term, and adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies in the medium term [10][79]. - Arbitrage: Near - month contracts may continue to fluctuate at the bottom due to the loose supply pattern, while far - month contracts may get stronger support as the pressure from the current spot market is limited [10][80]. - Options: No operation suggestions [10][80].