南华期货尿素产业周报：多单持有-20260126

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Urea is in a stage of supply surplus due to the continuous release of new production capacity, and the price center in 2026 will further decline, but the decline will be supported by export policies. The price trend in the first half of the year will depend on the demand rhythm, and in the second half, it will be policy - dominated. The urea 05 contract has a price increase expectation, but the price is expected to correct in the short term, with the top range between 1850 - 1950. It is recommended to hold long positions [4]. - The urea market is expected to fluctuate strongly. The UR2605 is expected to operate in the range of 1650 - 1950, and it is recommended to lay out long positions around 1700 [11]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations - Core Contradictions: Urea is in a supply - surplus stage. In 2026, the price center will decline, supported by export policies. The 05 contract has a price increase expectation but may correct in the short term [4]. - Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations: The urea market is expected to fluctuate strongly. The UR2605 operates in the range of 1650 - 1950. It is recommended to lay out long positions around 1700. For the basis strategy, the 11, 12, 01 contracts have a weak unilateral trend, while the 02, 03, 04, 05 contracts are strong. For the spread strategy, the upper pressure of 05 is 1950 yuan/ton, and the lower static support is 1650 yuan/ton. There is no hedging and arbitrage strategy [11][12]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events - This Week's Important Information: Likely Positive Information: The fourth quarter is the winter storage stage of the fertilizer industry, and the relatively low price may attract spontaneous reserves. India's NFL issued a new round of urea import tender, intending to purchase 1.5 million tons. Likely Negative Information: The current domestic urea daily production is 208,100 tons. After the narrow upward fluctuation, there is an obvious downward expectation. The domestic urea market is expected to rebound slightly and then remain in a stalemate, with the bottom range possibly rising [13]. - Next Week's Important Events to Follow: China's urea production this week is 1.3153 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.93%. Next week, the weekly production is expected to be around 1.34 million tons, with an increased probability of production [14]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation - Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation: The domestic urea market continued to rise strongly over the weekend, with a price increase of 10 - 40 yuan/ton. The fourth batch of urea export quotas and the new round of Indian tender news boosted market sentiment. The short - term market will continue to be strong. After the premium of the 05 contract is compressed, it is recommended to conduct a positive spread between 5 - 9 contracts at a low price [15][16]. - Industry Hedging Recommendations: The price range of urea is predicted to be 1650 - 1950, with a current volatility of 27.16% and a historical percentile of 62.1%. Different hedging strategies are provided for inventory management and procurement management, including futures trading and option trading [21][22]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - Upstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain: The report shows the seasonal trends of urea's fixed - bed production cost, water - coal slurry gasification production cost, and natural - gas production cost, as well as the corresponding production profit trends [24][26]. - Upstream Capacity Utilization Tracking: The report presents the seasonal trends of urea's daily production, weekly capacity utilization, coal - head capacity utilization, and natural - gas production capacity utilization [30]. - Upstream Inventory Tracking: The report shows the seasonal trends of China's urea enterprise inventory, port inventory, Guangdong and Guangxi inventory, and the total inventory of ports and the mainland [32][34]. - Downstream Price and Profit Tracking: The report presents the seasonal trends of compound fertilizer's capacity utilization, inventory, production cost, and market price, as well as the market price, capacity utilization, production volume, and production profit of melamine [36][42][47]. - Spot Production and Sales Tracking: The report shows the seasonal trends of urea's average production and sales, as well as the production and sales in Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Hebei, and East China [59][60][61].