多空交织，油脂震荡反弹

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats oscillated and rebounded. The complex news in the domestic and international oils and fats markets led to sharp fluctuations in the market. The cancellation of Indonesia's 2026 B50 plan and the expected resumption of Canadian rapeseed exports to China put pressure on the palm oil and rapeseed oil markets respectively. Currently, the domestic soybean oil spot is in a de - stocking cycle with a gradually rising price center. The fundamentals of Malaysian palm oil continue to improve, and Indonesia's continuous crackdown on illegal plantations boosts international vegetable oil prices. As the policy effects are released, the futures prices of oils and fats will oscillate strongly under the guidance of their own supply - demand fundamentals [5][9][32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - This week, the Y2605 soybean oil contract rose 0.97% to close at 8,094 yuan/ton, the P2605 palm oil contract rose 2.72% to close at 8,910 yuan/ton, and the OI2605 rapeseed oil contract fell 0.72% to close at 8,991 yuan/ton [5][31]. 3.2 Important Information - Palm Oil: From January 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 8.6% - 11.4% month - on - month, and the production in South Malaysia decreased by 16.06% month - on - month. Malaysian palm oil rose 2.91% [6][31]. - Soybean Oil: The ANEC raised Brazil's January soybean export forecast by 1.6% to 3.79 million tons, a 338.3% increase from the same period last year. The Abiove predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production will reach 177.12 million tons, with exports of 111.5 million tons (a 3% year - on - year increase) and a crush volume of 61 million tons (a 4.3% year - on - year increase). US soybeans rose 1.07% this week [7][32]. 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of January 22, 2026, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,620 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [10]. - As of January 22, 2026, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,980 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at an average level compared to the past 5 years [11]. - As of January 22, 2026, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,840 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at an average level compared to the past 5 years [13]. 3.4 Other Data - As of January 24, 2026, the national port soybean oil inventory decreased by 46,000 tons to 934,000 tons. As of January 21, 2026, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 6,000 tons to 776,000 tons [17]. - As of January 23, 2026, the port imported soybean inventory was 8,497,650 tons [19]. - As of January 22, 2026, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 536 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [22]. - As of January 22, 2026, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 36 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [23]. - As of January 22, 2026, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 838 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at an average level compared to the past 5 years [25].