华龙期货铁矿周报-20260126

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [6] Report Core View - The macro - policy easing expectation is relatively strong, the market sentiment is acceptable, and supported by the recent raw material replenishment demand of steel mills. Overall, iron ore is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term [5][35] Summary of Each Directory 1. Abstract - Last week, the 2605 contract of iron ore rose 1.21%. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.68%, a 0.16% week - on - week decrease and a 0.70% year - on - year increase. The steel mill profitability rate was 40.69%, a 0.86% week - on - week increase and an 8.23% year - on - year decrease. The daily average pig iron output was 2.281 million tons, a 0.09 - million - ton week - on - week increase and a 2.65 - million - ton year - on - year increase. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 167.6653 million tons, a 2.1143 - million - ton week - on - week increase. The daily average port clearance volume was 3.1073 million tons, a 0.0916 - million - ton decrease [4] 2. Disk Analysis - It includes analysis of futures prices, spot prices (such as the spot price of PB powder 61.5% at Tianjin Port), and futures position net position analysis [7][11][9] 3. Important Market Information - In December 2025, China's steel output was 68.18 million tons, a 10.3% year - on - year decrease. The global crude steel output was 139.6 million tons, a 3.7% year - on - year decrease. From January to December 2025, the global crude steel output was 1.8038 billion tons, a 2% year - on - year decrease. In mid - January, the social inventory of five major varieties of steel in 21 cities was 7.09 million tons, a 0.3% week - on - week decrease, a 1.7% decrease compared with the beginning of the year, and a 5.2% increase compared with the same period last year [14] 4. Supply - side Situation - As of December 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 119.65 million tons, a 9.11 - million - ton increase from the previous month. The import average price was $101.16 per ton, a $0.33 decrease from the previous month. Australia's iron ore shipping volume was 71.393 million tons, a 9.544 - million - ton increase from the previous month. Brazil's iron ore shipping volume was 27.635 million tons, a 3.328 - million - ton decrease from the first half of the month [19][23] 5. Demand - side Situation - It involves the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills, and the procurement volume of wire rods and screws at Shanghai terminals [24][28][30] 6. Fundamental Analysis - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.68%, a 0.16% week - on - week decrease and a 0.70% year - on - year increase. The steel mill profitability rate was 40.69%, a 0.86% week - on - week increase and an 8.23% year - on - year decrease. The daily average pig iron output was 2.281 million tons, a 0.09 - million - ton week - on - week increase and a 2.65 - million - ton year - on - year increase. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 167.6653 million tons, a 2.1143 - million - ton week - on - week increase. The daily average port clearance volume was 3.1073 million tons, a 0.0916 - million - ton decrease. The number of ships at ports was 118, an increase of 1. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 174.9653 million tons, a 2.0783 - million - ton week - on - week increase. The daily average port clearance volume was 3.2052 million tons, a 0.145 - million - ton decrease [34] 7. Market Outlook and Operation Strategy - Outlook: Iron ore is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term. Strategy: For single - side trading, go long on dips; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [35]