橡胶周报：化工板块走强，带动橡胶上涨-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall price of natural rubber futures last week showed a significant increase, with a prior decline followed by a rise. In the future, due to the bottom - cycle reversal logic of the chemical industry, the strong performance of synthetic rubber will drive the overall rise of the rubber sector, and the short - term sentiment may continue. The supply side still has certain pressure, while terminal consumption is good, and the inventory accumulation speed has slightly decreased. Overall, the fundamentals of natural rubber present a multi - empty game situation. Affected by the strong chemical sector and the sharp rise of synthetic rubber, the futures market is expected to maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the overall macro sentiment, geopolitical factors, weather disturbances and raw material output in the main rubber - producing areas, inventory accumulation, Sino - US trade relations, and changes in terminal demand [8][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the natural rubber futures main contract RU2605 fluctuated between 15,525 - 16,340 yuan/ton, with a prior decline followed by a rise and a significant overall increase. As of the close on Friday afternoon, January 23, 2026, the main contract was reported at 16,315 yuan/ton, up 480 points or 3.03% for the week [6][15]. 现货价格 - As of January 23, 2026, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 16,000 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai triple smoked sheets (RSS3) was 18,550 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 16,500 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,190 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from the previous week [20][24]. Basis and Spread - Taking the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two expanded slightly compared with the previous week. As of January 23, 2026, the basis was maintained at - 315 yuan/ton, an expansion of 180 yuan/ton from the previous week. The domestic and international prices of natural rubber both increased significantly compared with the previous week [28][31]. Important Market Information - A series of international events such as the Greenland issue, US economic data, and IMF's economic outlook updates were reported. The 2025 Chinese economic data showed that GDP increased by 5% year - on - year to 140.19 trillion yuan, and the automobile industry had good performance with production and sales reaching new highs. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026 [32][35][36]. Supply - Side Situation - As of November 30, 2025, the production in the main natural - rubber - producing countries showed different trends. The total production in November was 1.0515 million tons, a decrease of 19,500 tons or 1.82% from the previous month. As of December 31, 2025, the monthly output of synthetic rubber in China was 800,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.2%, and the cumulative output was 8.932 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.3%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.01% [42][46][50]. Demand - Side Situation - As of January 22, 2026, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises increased slightly, while that of all - steel tire enterprises decreased slightly. As of December 31, 2025, China's automobile production and sales in December decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, but the annual production and sales reached new highs. The monthly sales of heavy - duty trucks in December increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The monthly output of Chinese tire casings increased year - on - year, and the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires increased month - on - month. The automobile sales in major global countries also showed different trends [58][62][65]. Inventory - Side Situation - As of January 23, 2026, the natural - rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1,480 tons from the previous week. As of January 18, 2026, the social inventory of natural rubber in China increased by 17,000 tons or 1.3%, and the total inventory in Qingdao increased by 16,700 tons or 2.94% [86]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Domestic rubber - producing areas have fully stopped tapping, providing support for rubber prices. Some main producing areas are entering the low - production period, but Thailand's southern region is still in the peak - production period, so the supply side still has pressure. Import volume increased in 2025. Demand side: The operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises increased slightly, while that of all - steel tire enterprises decreased slightly. The automobile market had good annual performance but a decline in December. Tire exports increased. Inventory side: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, social inventory, and Qingdao's total inventory continued to rise, but the inventory - accumulation rate decreased slightly [87][88]. 后市展望 - The overall situation is similar to the core view, emphasizing the driving effect of the chemical industry and synthetic rubber on the rubber sector, the pressure on the supply side, good terminal consumption, and the slowdown of inventory accumulation. The futures market is expected to be slightly bullish and volatile in the short term [89][90]. 观点及操作策略 - This week's view: The main natural - rubber futures contract is expected to maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the short - term callback risk and the pressure around 16,500 yuan/ton. Operation strategy: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see for now, and aggressive traders can consider going long lightly on dips; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [91][92].