铅周报：沪铅或以震荡趋势运行-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Lead prices are likely to show a fluctuating trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for options contracts [7][35] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2603 of Shanghai lead futures showed a fluctuating and weakening trend, ranging from around 17,035 CNY/ton to about 17,415 CNY/ton [9] 3.2. Macroeconomic Aspect - In December 2025, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.2% year - on - year in real terms, and 0.49% month - on - month. In 2025, the added value increased by 5.9% compared with the previous year. Among 41 major industries, 33 had year - on - year growth in added value in December, with different growth rates for each industry [13] 3.3. Spot Analysis - As of January 23, 2026, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous metal market was 17,150 CNY/ton, an increase of 10 CNY/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 16,960 CNY/ton, 17,040 CNY/ton, and 16,970 CNY/ton respectively. The premium/discount of 1 lead remained around a discount of - 140 CNY/ton compared with the previous trading day [16] 3.4. Supply and Demand Situation - As of January 16, 2026, the average processing fees (factory prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 500 CNY/metal ton, 200 CNY/metal ton, and 300 CNY/metal ton respectively, and the average processing fee (truck - board price) in Kunming was 190 CNY/metal ton. As of December 31, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 719,000 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 5.3%, remaining at a relatively high level compared with the past five years [23] 3.5. Inventory Situation - As of January 23, 2026, the refined lead inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 29,351 tons, a decrease of 7,693 tons from the previous week. As of January 22, 2026, the LME lead inventory was 218,425 tons, a decrease of 4,225 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 14.08% [29] 3.6. Fundamental Analysis - In December 2025, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.2% year - on - year in real terms, and 0.49% month - on - month. In 2025, it increased by 5.9% compared with the previous year. Lead processing fees changed little, and the price level was at the bottom. Lead production increased in December 2025 and remained at a relatively high level in recent years. Shanghai lead inventory decreased to an extremely low level in recent years, while LME lead inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level in recent years [34]