纯碱周报：缺乏单边驱动，供应压力依旧-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The market lacks a unilateral driver, with prices oscillating between the short - term benefit of inventory reduction and the long - term negative of future supply pressure. The market is expected to maintain a weak oscillating pattern with limited upside potential. It is recommended to go short on rallies for single - side trading, and consider selling a wide - straddle option combination to collect premiums in the oscillating market [8][37] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract of soda ash futures oscillated within the range of 1159 - 1215 yuan/ton, with the oscillation narrowing. As of January 23, 2026, the main contract SA2605 of soda ash futures rose 6 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.50%, closing at 1198 yuan/ton [5] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - As of January 22, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 77.17 tons, a decrease of 0.36 tons from the previous week, a decline of 0.46%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 86.42%, down 0.40% from the previous value. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 87.69%, down 2.27% from the previous week; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 77.99%, down 0.89% from the previous week [6][9][11] 3.2.2 Inventory - As of January 22, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 152.12 tons, a decrease of 2.30 tons from Monday, a decline of 1.49%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 82.45 tons, an increase of 0.19 tons from the previous week, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 69.67 tons, a decrease of 2.49 tons from the previous week. The inventory at the same time last year was 142.95 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.17 tons, an increase of 6.41% [7][14] 3.2.3 Shipment - As of January 22, 2026, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 82.56 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.80%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 106.98%, a month - on - month increase of 7.27 percentage points [16] 3.2.4 Profit - As of January 22, 2026, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of soda ash by the co - production method in China was - 40 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.09%. The theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - soda process was - 96.30 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week [19][23] 3.3 Downstream Industry Situation 3.3.1 Float Glass Industry Output - As of January 22, 2026, the daily output of national float glass was 15.07 tons, the same as on the 15th. The weekly output of national float glass from January 16 - 22, 2026, was 105.52 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.95% [28] 3.3.2 Float Glass Industry Inventory - As of January 22, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 5321.6 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 20.3 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 0.38% and a year - on - year increase of 22.74%. The inventory days were 23.1 days, an increase of 0.1 day from the previous period [31] 3.4 Price Analysis - Most of the prices of domestic soda ash in various regions remained stable from January 15 to 22, 2026. The price of动力煤 (5500 kcal) decreased by 1.14%, and the price of 32% caustic soda in Jiangsu decreased by 2.41%, while the price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu increased by 0.45% [36] 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis and Operation Suggestions - The market is in a situation of "long - short game under weak supply - demand balance". The short - term support comes from the slight decrease in supply and the improvement in shipment, while the long - term negative is the high - level capacity utilization rate and large absolute inventory. The downstream demand is weak, and the industry profit is low. It is recommended to go short on rallies for single - side trading, and consider selling a wide - straddle option combination [37]