资讯早班车-2026-01-26-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese capital market is accelerating its opening - up, and new regulations for public funds are set to address industry issues. The bond market shows a slight upward trend, and the stock market has a positive outlook with new - fund issuance booming. Commodity markets, including metals, energy, and agriculture, have various price movements driven by different factors [2][17][25][36] - The macro - economic data shows a mixed picture, with GDP growth slowing, inflation rising slightly, and changes in various economic indicators such as manufacturing PMI, social financing, and trade [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth in Q4 2025 was 4.5% year - on - year, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period last year. Manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up from 49.8% in the previous month. Non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, slightly up from 50.0% [1] - Social financing in December 2025 was 22075 billion yuan, down from 35299 billion yuan in the previous month. M0, M1, and M2 growth rates changed compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1] - CPI in December 2025 was 0.8% year - on - year, up from - 0.3% in the previous month. PPI was - 1.9% year - on - year, slightly improved from - 2.3% [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The China Securities Regulatory Commission added 14 futures and options as domestic specific varieties, signaling an acceleration of capital market opening [2] - The Fed is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75% in its January meeting, with a 95% probability according to the CME FedWatch tool [3] - On January 23, 31 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 37 had negative basis [3] 3.2.2 Metals - Gold prices broke through $5000 per ounce, and silver prices exceeded $106 per ounce, with a 3% increase. Analysts predict gold price increases between 10% - 35% in 2026 [4][5] - Gold - related listed companies' performance improved due to rising gold prices, and some companies are still acquiring gold - mine assets [5] - The prices of gold and silver reached their highest weekly gains since 2020, driven by factors such as a weak dollar, capital outflows from currency and bonds, and geopolitical tensions [5] - The lithium carbonate futures price exceeded 180,000 yuan per ton, driven by supply contraction and demand growth, but market divergence is increasing [5] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Coking coal prices rose significantly, with most coal types increasing by over 100 yuan per ton, increasing coke production costs [7] - Coking enterprises' losses intensified, with an average loss of 65 yuan per ton of coke last week, a 20 - yuan increase from the previous week [7] - The coke market is in a tight supply - demand balance, with high steel - mill iron - water production and low coke production [8] - In 2025, the national coal production by large - scale enterprises reached 48.3 billion tons, a 1.2% year - on - year increase [8] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - In December 2025, the national electricity market trading volume was 608 billion kWh, a 6.6% year - on - year increase. Green power trading volume increased by 32.3% [10] - Due to a cold wave in the US, natural gas futures prices exceeded $6 per million British thermal units for the first time since 2022 [10] - The US may cancel the 25% tariff on India if India's oil imports from Russia continue to decline [11] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - In mid - January 2026, 29 out of 50 important production materials' prices rose, 13 declined, and 8 remained unchanged compared to early January. Pig prices increased by 3.2% [14] - Fruit prices, such as strawberries, cherries, and tangerines, decreased due to sufficient supply [14] - As of mid - January 2026, the price of soybeans increased by 0.31% month - on - month [14] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On January 23, the central bank conducted 125 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 38.3 billion yuan after deducting the maturity amount [15] - This week, 1181 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 200 billion yuan of MLF will mature. The central bank conducted 900 billion yuan of MLF operations in January, with a net injection of 700 billion yuan [15] - The central bank's mid - term liquidity net injection in January reached 1 trillion yuan to maintain market liquidity [16] 3.3.2 Important News - The CSRC issued guidelines for public - fund performance comparison benchmarks, and the Asset Management Association of China released operating rules, which will take effect on March 1 [17] - The national market operation and consumption promotion meeting emphasized promoting commodity and service consumption upgrades [17] - In 2025, the actual use of foreign capital in China was 747.69 billion yuan, a 9.5% year - on - year decrease, but some industries saw growth [18] - The central bank will promote global financial governance reform and international financial cooperation in 2026 [18] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market showed a slight upward trend, with interest - rate bond yields falling by about 1bp. The 10 - year treasury bond yield reached 1.83% [25] - In the exchange bond market, most Vanke bonds rose, and the real - estate bond index and high - yield urban investment bond index also increased [26] - The convertible bond index rose, with some bonds having significant gains and losses [26][27] - Most money - market interest rates declined, and bond - issuance yields and multiples were reported [27][28] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9642, down 14 points from the previous trading day, but up 48 points last week. The RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was raised by 90 points [31] - The US dollar index fell 0.79%, and most non - US currencies rose [31] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Fixed - Income believes that the second - tier perpetual bonds have recovered, and the bond market may continue to fluctuate in Q1, with some trading opportunities [32] - Huatai Securities is optimistic about the investment opportunities of high - quality real - estate enterprises, commercial operators, Hong Kong - funded real - estate enterprises, and high - dividend property - management companies [32] - CICC Fixed - Income reports that the scale of nominal fixed - income + funds reached a record high in Q4 2025, while pure - bond funds faced redemption pressure [33] - CITIC Securities expects the expansion of public REITs to become normal, which will help transform the REITs market from "small and scattered" to "large and excellent" [34] - CITIC Construction Investment warns of risks such as US inflation, economic recession, European energy crisis, and global geopolitical risks [34] 3.4 Stock Market News - Foreign public - fund institutions are optimistic about the A - share market in 2026, maintaining high - position strategies and focusing on the technology sector [36][37] - Since the beginning of 2026, the new - fund issuance market has recovered, with 76 new funds established and a total fundraising of 71.939 billion yuan as of January 24 [37] 3.5 Today's Reminders - On January 26, 195 bonds will be listed, 127 bonds will be issued, 127 bonds will be paid, and 498 bonds will pay principal and interest [35]