供需双轮驱动，碳酸锂谨慎看涨：碳酸锂周报-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is cautiously bullish, driven by both supply and demand factors. The supply is tight due to issues with mining licenses and year - end maintenance, while the demand is expected to increase as downstream enterprises may start stockpiling before the Spring Festival and the export tax - rebate policy adjustment may lead to a "non - off - season" for material manufacturers [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Overview - In China, the industrial added value of large - scale industries in December increased by 6.8% year - on - year, 0.6% faster than the previous month. The social consumer goods retail总额 in December increased by 5.6% year - on - year. The export amount in December reached $357.75 billion, a record high for a single month, with a year - on - year growth of 6.6% and a 0.7% increase in the growth rate compared to the previous month. Real estate investment in December decreased by 35.8% year - on - year. The CPI in December increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 1.2%. The PPI in December decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3%. In the US, the initial estimate of GDP in the fourth quarter showed an annualized quarter - on - quarter growth of 3.3%, far exceeding the expected 2%. The core PCE index in December increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month [3]. 3.2 Supply Side - This week, the lithium carbonate production decreased slightly. Issues with mining licenses at the ore end continued to intensify, and some enterprises carried out year - end maintenance, resulting in tight market supply. As of January 23, the lithium carbonate production was 24,150 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 360 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 52.8%, a 1.5% week - on - week decline. The lithium hydroxide supply was also tight, with a production of 6,715 tons as of January 16, a week - on - week increase of 325 tons, and an enterprise operating rate of 36.99%, a 1.79% week - on - week increase [3][10][12]. 3.3 Demand Side - From January 1 to 18, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the national market were 312,000 units, a 16% year - on - year decrease compared to the same period in January last year and a 52% decrease compared to the same period of the previous month. The wholesale volume was 348,000 units, a 23% year - on - year decrease compared to the same period in January last year and a 46% decrease compared to the same period of the previous month. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises may start stockpiling, and the adjustment of the export tax - rebate policy will promote material manufacturers to have a "non - off - season" feature, with the production of lithium iron phosphate returning to an upward trend [4][5]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - This week, the ore - end prices increased significantly. The African SC 5% was priced at $1,850 per ton, a $100 per - ton increase compared to last week; the Australian 6% spodumene CIF price was $2,325 per ton, a $75 per - ton increase compared to last week; the lithium mica market price was 6,500 yuan per ton, a 450 - yuan per - ton increase compared to last week. The lithium carbonate industry profit was 36,139 yuan per ton, a 3,529 - yuan decrease compared to last week. The lithium hydroxide industry profit expanded, with a profit of 40,022 yuan per ton as of January 16, a 11,047 - yuan increase compared to last week. However, the downstream lithium iron phosphate industry was still in a loss - making state, with a loss of 2,259 yuan per ton as of January 23, a 29 - yuan per - ton decrease compared to last week [4][49][54]. 3.5 Inventory - As of January 22, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 108,896 tons, a 783 - ton decrease compared to last week. The inventory of upstream smelters was 19,834 tons, a 107 - ton increase compared to last week. The total inventory of lithium iron phosphate decreased, with a total inventory of 29,299 tons as of January 23, a 1,487 - ton decrease compared to last week. However, the inventory of the ternary material industry increased [33][36][38]. 3.6 Market Price - As of January 23, the lithium carbonate futures contract LC2605 closed at 181,520 yuan per ton, a 24.2% increase compared to last week. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 170,000 yuan per ton, an 8% increase compared to last week. Most lithium - related products' prices increased, such as lithium iron phosphate, whose storage - type price increased by 5.73% and power - type price increased by 5.35% [7][6]. 3.7 Future Outlook - The lithium carbonate futures and spot price basis was generally stable. The lithium carbonate main contract is expected to remain strong under the drive of continuous supply disturbances and resilient demand, as the supply is expected to remain tight and the downstream demand for restocking is strong [5].