豆粕周报：阿根廷产区偏干，连粕震荡收敛-20260126

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the CBOT March soybean contract rose 11.25 cents to close at 1067.5 cents per bushel, a 1.07% increase; the May soybean meal contract rose 24 yuan to close at 2751 yuan per ton, a 0.88% increase; the spot price of soybean meal in South China was 3100 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous week; the May rapeseed meal contract fell 20 yuan to close at 2235 yuan per ton, a 0.89% decrease; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Guangxi fell 20 yuan to close at 2430 yuan per ton, a 0.82% decrease [4][7]. - After the decline, US soybeans oscillated upwards. Firstly, due to the expected release of the US biodiesel policy, the strengthening of US soybean oil boosted US soybeans. Secondly, the accelerating export sales progress of US soybeans also supported the price. Thirdly, increased precipitation in the central Brazilian producing areas might slow down the harvesting progress in the short term. Fourthly, the dry weather in the Argentine producing areas affected crop growth and development, leading to a recent downgrade of the crop's good - to - excellent rate and an increase in speculation sentiment. In China, the oil mill's crushing and operating rate rebounded slightly. Soybeans and soybean meal were in the process of inventory reduction. The pre - Spring Festival stocking demand gradually emerged, with good downstream transactions (but a decline compared to the previous week). Feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory continued to increase. The import cost increased slightly, and combined with the improvement of the domestic commodity sentiment, the Dalian soybean meal stopped falling and rose [4][7]. - In the next two weeks, the dry weather in the Argentine producing areas will lead to a downgrade of the crop's good - to - excellent rating, and the market's weather speculation sentiment will heat up. The excessive precipitation in the central - western Brazilian producing areas may slow down the harvesting progress. The pre - Spring Festival stocking demand continues, with good overall soybean meal transactions. Feed enterprises' inventory continues to increase, and the domestic oil mill's crushing and operating rate rebounds. The high - inventory reduction process continues. Pay attention to weather changes in South America and the intensity of stocking demand. In summary, it is expected that the Dalian soybean meal will oscillate in the short term [4][11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Data | Contract | January 23, 2026 | January 16, 2026 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1067.50 | 1056.25 | 11.25 | 1.07% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 448.00 | 448.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 477.00 | 473.00 | 4.00 | 0.85% | US dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Profit on the Futures Market | 71.46 | 37.87 | 33.59 | - | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 2751.00 | 2727.00 | 24.00 | 0.88% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2235.00 | 2255.00 | -20.00 | -0.89% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Price Difference | 516.00 | 472.00 | 44.00 | - | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 3100.00 | 3120.00 | -20.00 | -0.64% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 3100.00 | 3100.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Price Difference: South China | 349.00 | 373.00 | -24.00 | - | Yuan per ton | [5] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - US soybean market: The CBOT March soybean contract rose. Factors included the expected release of the US biodiesel policy, accelerating export sales, increased precipitation in central Brazil, and dry weather in Argentina. As of the week of January 15, 2026, the net increase in US soybean export sales for the 2025/2026 season was 244.6 million tons, and the cumulative sales volume was 3303.5 million tons, with a sales progress of 77.1%. China's net purchase in that week was 130.3 million tons, with a cumulative purchase of 942 million tons and an outstanding shipment of 673.4 million tons [7][8]. - Brazilian soybean market: As of the week of January 17, 2026, the soybean harvesting rate was 2.3%. The expected export volume in January was 379 million tons. Forecasts suggest that the excessive precipitation in the central producing areas may slow down the harvesting progress in the later stage [7][9]. - Argentine soybean market: As of the week of January 21, 2026, the soybean sowing progress was 96.2%. The proportion of normal and good - to - excellent crops was 87%. The dry weather forecast continues, and if it persists, it will affect crop growth and development [9]. - Domestic market: As of the week of January 16, 2026, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.8733 billion tons, a decrease of 257.9 million tons from the previous week; the soybean meal inventory was 947.2 million tons, a decrease of 96.8 million tons from the previous week; the outstanding contracts were 4.9848 billion tons, a decrease of 423.8 million tons from the previous week. The national port soybean inventory was 7.721 billion tons, a decrease of 307 million tons from the previous week. As of the week of January 23, 2026, the daily average trading volume of soybean meal nationwide was 186,720 tons, and the daily average pick - up volume was 188,160 tons. The major oil mills' crushing volume was 2.1021 billion tons. The feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 10.21 days [10]. 3.3 Industry News - Safras & Mercado predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/2026 season will reach 1.7928 billion tons, a 4.3% increase from the previous year, setting a new record. The planting area is expected to increase by 1.5% year - on - year, and the average yield per hectare is expected to increase by 2.8% [12]. - As of January 15, 2026, the EU's soybean imports in the 2025/2026 season were 6.61 billion tons, a 14% year - on - year decrease [12]. - Canada and China reached a preliminary trade agreement on January 16, 2026, significantly reducing tariff barriers on key commodities such as electric vehicles and rapeseed [13]. - AgRural reports that as of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean harvesting rate was 2%, slightly higher than the same period last year [13]. - Safras predicts that Brazil's soybean export volume in 2026 will be 1.05 billion tons, and the crushing volume will be 600 million tons. The total supply is expected to reach 1.8379 billion tons, a 5% increase from the previous year [14]. - SECEX reports that Brazil's soybean export pace in January 2026 is significantly higher than the same period last year. From January 1 to 16, 2026, the export volume was 1.307 billion tons, and the daily average export volume increased by 144.6% year - on - year [14]. - As of January 15, 2026, the EU's soybean imports in the 2025/2026 season were 6.7 billion tons, and the soybean meal imports were 9.9 billion tons, both showing a year - on - year decrease [15]. - In Argentina's early - maturing soybean planting areas, some regions are experiencing drought, while others have sufficient or excessive soil moisture [15]. - StoneX reports that the market expects the US EPA to soon release the final regulations on biofuels, which is expected to boost market sentiment [15]. - ABIOVE predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/2026 season will be 1.77124 billion tons, and the crushing volume will reach a record - high 610 million tons [16]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides 28 charts, including the trend of US soybean continuous contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival prices, freight rates, RMB spot exchange rate trends, regional crushing profits, management funds' CBOT net positions, soybean meal futures - spot price differences, and various inventory and trading volume data trends [18 - 45]