交投情绪拉扯，锌价高位震荡

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the Shanghai zinc futures price fluctuated at a high level, with the macro - focus on the tariff disputes between Europe, America, and Canada over Greenland. The domestic GDP in 2025 met the 5% growth target, with investment and consumption growth slowing in December. The equity market's high enthusiasm drove the commodity market [3][10]. - Fundamentally, the output of Kipushi zinc mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo increased slightly, while that of Antamina mine decreased. Due to the unstable situation in Iran, the overall overseas zinc ore supply might be lower than expected, and the zinc ore processing fee could not improve significantly, strengthening the support for zinc prices. However, high zinc prices and strong by - product prices repaired smelter profits, leading to increased refined zinc supply and supply pressure [3][10]. - On the demand side, the environmental protection restrictions in Tianjin and Hebei were lifted, and the operating rate of galvanizing enterprises rebounded. But terminal orders were still weak, and many enterprises planned to have an early Spring Festival holiday. The operating rate of some alloy and hardware factories decreased, and the recovery of the zinc oxide operating rate was limited [3][10]. - Overall, the Shanghai zinc market faced a game between long and short factors. The weak pattern of increased supply and weak consumption suppressed zinc prices, but the cost - side support was strengthened. In the short term, the Shanghai zinc price would mainly fluctuate around the macro - level, and it was expected to maintain a high - level consolidation trend. This week, attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and tariff disturbances [3][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | 16th Jan | 23rd Jan | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Zinc | 24,750 | 24,585 | - 165 | Yuan/ton | | LME Zinc | 3207.5 | 3269 | 61.5 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 7.72 | 7.52 | - 0.20 | - | | SHFE Inventory | 76,311 | 73,151 | - 3160 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 106,525 | 111,500 | 4975 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 11.92 | 11.88 | 0.04 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | 50 | 40 | - 10 | Yuan/ton | [4] 3.2 Market Review - The Shanghai zinc futures price first declined and then rebounded. Affected by Trump's plan to impose tariffs on 8 European countries, market risk - aversion increased, and non - ferrous metals were under pressure. After the tariff disturbance eased, the market sentiment recovered, and the zinc price rebounded. The weekly decline was 0.67%. The LME zinc price rebounded, with a weekly increase of 1.87% [5]. - In the spot market, downstream procurement became more cautious as the price rose, and the spot premium first increased and then decreased. As of January 23rd, the LME zinc inventory increased by 4975 tons to 111,500 tons, the SHFE inventory decreased by 3160 tons to 73,151 tons. As of January 22nd, the social inventory was 11.88 million tons [6]. - Macroscopically, the US GDP in Q3 2025 grew at an annualized rate of 4.4%, the core PCE price index in November met expectations, and the number of initial jobless claims last week was lower than expected. Trump reached an agreement framework on Greenland with the NATO Secretary - General, but also made a series of tariff threats. The EU held an emergency summit to discuss counter - measures. In China, the GDP in 2025 met the 5% target, but investment and consumption growth slowed in December [7][8][9] 3.3 Industry News - In February 2026, the average domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 1400 yuan/metal ton, unchanged from the previous month [12]. - Korea Zinc plans to invest $7.4 billion to expand and renovate the Nyrstar smelter in the US, and it will take 6 - 7 years to process about 600,000 tons of waste containing various metals. The project will start this year and be commercially operational in 2029 [12]. - Teck's zinc concentrate output in 2025 was 565,000 metric tons, and the zinc ingot output of Trail smelter was 229,900 tons. However, the 2026 zinc concentrate output guidance of Antamina mine was lowered [13]. - Variscan is promoting the Novales - Udías zinc project. Pan American Silver's zinc and lead production is expected to increase in 2026 [13]. - From January to November 2025, the global refined zinc market had a supply surplus of 74,000 tons, more than twice that of the same period in 2024 [13]. - In December 2025, the imported zinc concentrate was 462,500 tons, a 10.87% month - on - month decrease and a 1.15% year - on - year increase. The imported refined zinc was 8700 tons, a 51.94% month - on - month decrease. The exported galvanized sheet was 1.3891 million tons, a 16.87% month - on - month increase and a 34.82% year - on - year increase [14]. - The Gediktepe sulfide ore expansion project of ACG Metals is expected to start producing copper and zinc in mid - 2026 [14]. - Kipushi mine produced a record 203,168 tons of zinc concentrate in 2025, and the 2026 output guidance is 240,000 - 290,000 tons [14] 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including price trends of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc, internal and external price ratios, spot premiums, inventory levels, zinc ore processing fees, and downstream enterprise operating rates [16][17][18]