市场博弈，铝价震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, geopolitical tensions initially rose due to Trump's tariff threat but later eased The US Q3 GDP was revised upwards, with a slight increase in initial jobless claims and a moderate rise in the PCE price index, strengthening the view of the Fed staying put in the short - term while long - term easing expectations remain unchanged Domestically and in Indonesia, newly invested electrolytic aluminum projects are ramping up production, leading to a slow increase in supply and a continued decline in the molten aluminum ratio. After a decline, aluminum prices stabilized, downstream consumption improved slightly, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed. Overall, with mixed macro news and stable - to - slightly - increasing supply and consumption with some resilience in the seasonal off - season, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels [2][8] - For cast aluminum, the aluminum alloy operating rate rose by 1.3% to 59.3% last week due to the lifting of environmental controls in some areas. However, downstream consumption is restricted by the seasonal off - season, snowfall, and environmental production restrictions in Central China. Terminal orders are disappointing, and some manufacturers have entered the Spring Festival holiday early. The exchange inventory decreased by 2140 tons. With supply slightly increasing but still restricted by costs and downstream orders, and demand remaining weak in the seasonal off - season, the supply - demand stalemate continues, and cast aluminum prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [2][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - LME aluminum 3 - month price increased from 3128.5 to 3173.5 yuan/ton, SHFE aluminum continuous - three price increased from 24020 to 24395 dollars/ton, and the LME aluminum inventory increased from 488000 to 507275 tons, among other data changes [4] 3.2 Market Review - In the electrolytic aluminum spot market, the weekly average price was 23816 yuan/ton, a decrease of 486 yuan/ton from last week. The South China storage spot weekly average price was 23858 yuan/ton, a decrease of 476 yuan/ton from last week. Macro factors include Trump's tariff threat and subsequent withdrawal, US GDP growth, and inflation data. In terms of consumption, the downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate rose slightly, and inventory increased. For cast aluminum, the SMM spot price increased, the operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises rose, and the exchange warehouse receipt inventory decreased [5][6][7] 3.3 Market Outlook - Similar to the core views, electrolytic aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels due to mixed macro news and stable - to - slightly - increasing supply and consumption with resilience in the off - season. Cast aluminum prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate due to the supply - demand stalemate [8][9] 3.4 Industry News - In December 2025, China exported 54.5 tons of unforged aluminum and aluminum products, and the cumulative export from January to December was 613.4 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0%. In the US physical aluminum market, the tariff cost per ton of aluminum has risen from about 1300 dollars in June to 1550 dollars. China's automobile production and sales are expected to exceed 34 million in 2025, with new energy vehicles accounting for over 50% of new car sales [10][11] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides charts on LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum prices, ratios, premiums, spreads, inventory, and cast aluminum prices and inventory, etc [13][18][27]