铁矿周报：港库高位运行，铁矿震荡承压-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the supply side shows that overseas shipments and arrivals decreased last week, but arrivals remained at a high level, and port inventories continued to increase. On the demand side, hot metal production was weakly stable last week, iron ore daily consumption was at a low level before the Spring Festival, in - plant inventories increased, and steel mills' pre - Spring Festival restocking gradually increased. The overall situation of iron ore is strong supply and weak demand, and the pre - Spring Festival restocking of steel mills provides some support. It is expected that the futures price will show a volatile and pressured trend [1][4][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - SHFE rebar: The closing price was 3142 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan or 0.66% from the previous week, with a total trading volume of 4,363,197 lots and a total open interest of 2,373,958 lots [2] - SHFE hot - rolled coil: The closing price was 3305 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.30% from the previous week, with a total trading volume of 1,840,077 lots and a total open interest of 1,453,320 lots [2] - DCE iron ore: The closing price was 795.0 yuan/ton, down 17.0 yuan or 2.09% from the previous week, with a total trading volume of 1,409,932 lots and a total open interest of 566,469 lots [2] - DCE coking coal: The closing price was 1157.0 yuan/ton, down 14.0 yuan or 1.20% from the previous week, with a total trading volume of 5,090,547 lots and a total open interest of 657,580 lots [2] - DCE coke: The closing price was 1722.0 yuan/ton, up 5.0 yuan or 0.29% from the previous week, with a total trading volume of 98,670 lots and a total open interest of 39,991 lots [2] 3.2 Market Review - Demand Side: Last week, hot metal production was weakly stable, iron ore daily consumption was at a low level before the Spring Festival, in - plant inventories increased, and steel mills' pre - Spring Festival restocking gradually increased. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.68%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 0.70 percentage points compared to the same period last year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.51%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 0.87 percentage points compared to the same period last year; the steel mill profitability rate was 40.69%, an increase of 0.86 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 8.23 percentage points compared to the same period last year; the daily average hot metal production was 228.1 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons from the previous week and an increase of 2.65 tons compared to the same period last year [1][4] - Supply Side: Last week, overseas shipments and arrivals decreased, but arrivals remained at a high level, and port inventories continued to increase. The total global iron ore shipments were 2,929.8 tons, a decrease of 251.1 tons from the previous week. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,246.6 tons, a decrease of 359.8 tons from the previous week. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 17,496.53 tons, an increase of 207.83 tons from the previous week; the daily average port clearance volume was 320.52 tons, a decrease of 14.50 tons [1][5] 3.3 Industry News - The central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, said that in 2026, the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, taking promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as important considerations for monetary policy. There is still some room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [10] - In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.0% year - on - year, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan; the added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.9%, 0.1 percentage points faster than the previous year; the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7%, 0.2 percentage points faster than the previous year; fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8%, among which real estate development investment decreased by 17.2%. At the end of 2025, the national population was 140,489,000, with 7.92 million births and 11.31 million deaths throughout the year, and the total population decreased by 3.39 million year - on - year [10] - In 2025, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.2% from the previous year. The floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 659.89 million square meters, a decrease of 10.0% from the previous year. The newly started floor area was 58.77 million square meters, a decrease of 20.4%. The completed floor area was 60.348 million square meters, a decrease of 18.1%. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 88.101 million square meters, a decrease of 8.7% from the previous year. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 839.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6% [10] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides 24 charts related to the iron ore industry, including the profitability rate of national steel mills, daily average hot metal production, blast furnace operating rate, iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil, and various inventory data [9][11][13][17][26][29][32][37][40][42][44]