特朗普夺岛TACO，铜牛窄幅踏步：沪铜周报-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Suggest holding short - term copper long positions, setting trailing stop - profits, and considering it a good opportunity to enter the market after a full correction. Remain optimistic about copper in the long - term [6]. - In the short - term, there is a fierce battle around the 100,000 - yuan mark for copper. The market is in a high - level shock. It is recommended to set trailing stop - profits for short - term long positions and pay attention to the support of the 30 - day moving average. Long - term long positions should be held firmly [6]. - In the medium - to long - term, copper is an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game and a substitute for precious metals in asset allocation. With the tight supply of copper concentrates and the explosion of green copper demand, the outlook for copper remains positive [6]. - Short - term Shanghai copper is expected to trade in the range of [98,500, 105,500] yuan/ton, and LME copper in the range of [12,500, 13,500] [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Viewpoint Summary - The US economic data is strong, but the inflation data is not enough to prompt the Fed to accelerate interest rate cuts. The US Q3 real GDP quarterly growth rate was revised up to 4.4%, and the core PCE inflation remained at 2.9% [10]. - China achieved a 5% GDP growth target in 2025. The central bank said there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in 2026. The 1 - year LPR is 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR is 3.5%, remaining unchanged for 8 consecutive months [13]. - Long - term, copper is positively correlated with the Nasdaq index, gold, and crude oil, and negatively correlated with US Treasury yields. Gold has become the world's largest reserve asset, and the gold - copper ratio is at a new high, indicating that copper has room for a catch - up [16]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - US Economy: The US dollar index fell 1.09% this week to 98.29 as of January 22. The core CPI in December increased by only 0.2% month - on - month, lower than market expectations. The Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in January. Trump's remarks about the Fed chair have raised concerns about its independence [10]. - Chinese Economy: China's GDP in 2025 increased by 5% year - on - year to 140.19 trillion yuan. The real estate market is weak, with housing prices falling. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and there is room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [13]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - Copper Ore Supply: Mining giant mergers are accelerating. Rio Tinto is in talks to acquire Glencore. Some mines have production disruptions, while others increase production. In 2025, China's imports of copper concentrates reached a record high. The TC of copper concentrates is at a low level, and the market expects a tight supply in 2026 [48][49]. - Refined Copper Production: In December 2025, domestic copper smelting started at 87.34%, and the output was 117.81 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. It is expected that the output in January 2026 will be 116.36 tons, a decrease of 1.45 tons compared with December. Imports of unwrought copper and copper products decreased in 2025 [50]. - Scrap Copper: The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the refined - scrap price difference has risen to a medium - to high level. The annual import of recycled copper in 2025 is expected to be about 230 tons, a slight increase of 2.24% year - on - year [50]. 3.3.2 Demand - Industrial Demand: In December 2025, the copper product industry's operating rate was 59.51%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.09%. The operating rates of different copper product sub - industries showed different trends. The overall demand is affected by high copper prices [70]. - Terminal Demand: Green copper demand is on the rise, with high copper consumption in renewable energy and new energy vehicles. The demand for copper in the power industry is also strong, and the government's policy of replacing old household appliances with new ones has promoted the demand for copper in the home appliance industry [72]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - In the short - term, the copper market is in a high - level shock due to the fierce battle between long and short positions. The high inventory during the off - season drags down copper prices. It is recommended to set trailing stop - profits for short - term long positions and pay attention to the support of the 30 - day moving average [6]. - In the medium - to long - term, copper is an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game and a substitute for precious metals in asset allocation. With the tight supply of copper concentrates and the explosion of green copper demand, the outlook for copper remains positive [6].