电解铝：宏观预期反复，铝市场中期仍看好

Report Overview - The report focuses on the aluminum and alumina markets, providing in - depth analysis of market conditions, supply - demand balance, and price trends [1][88] Aluminum Market Investment Rating - Not explicitly mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - Aluminum has significant fundamental support with a continuous global supply gap and low supply elasticity, and new demand growth points during the energy transition. However, due to strong market expectations, prices have broken through previous highs ahead of schedule. The short - term market is expected to cool down before the Spring Festival but will maintain an overall oscillating and upward - trending pattern, with a mid - term upward trend remaining unchanged [3] Summary by Section LME Market Performance - Analyzes aluminum import and export profits, LME aluminum speculative fund net positions, LME aluminum price trends, overseas mainstream consumer spot trade premiums, LME aluminum spot premiums and discounts, and LME aluminum inventory [5][6][7][8][9] Aluminum Inventory Performance - Discusses domestic and international aluminum inventory changes, including social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods, bonded area aluminum ingot inventory, and LME aluminum total inventory [15][16][17][18] Spread Conditions - Covers Shanghai - Guangdong spread, mainstream consumer base spreads, mainstream consumer price spreads, and monthly spreads [20][24] Aluminum Primary Processed Product Processing Fees - Analyzes processing fees of primary aluminum products such as aluminum rods in Shandong, aluminum sheets and strips in Henan, and the scrap - refined aluminum spread [28][30] Recycled Aluminum Alloy Spot Conditions - Examines recycled aluminum alloy production, prices, import profits, and inventory [36][37][38][42][45] Supply Side - Analyzes global and domestic electrolytic aluminum supply, including production, profits, net imports, and capacity changes [51][52][53][54][56][58] Aluminum Processing Capacity Utilization - Discusses the capacity utilization rates of various aluminum processing sectors such as profiles, sheets and strips, foils, cables, and alloys [60][61] Downstream Demand - Analyzes downstream demand in industries such as photovoltaics, automobiles, real estate, power, home appliances, and exports [63][68][72][75][79][82] Aluminum Supply - Demand Balance Outlook - Provides a long - term supply - demand balance table for aluminum, including global, overseas, and domestic production, demand, and balance [85][86] Alumina Market Investment Rating - Not explicitly mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - Alumina is in an overall surplus situation. Although previous warrant transactions absorbed some surplus, they also pressured near - term prices. The market should focus on high - cost capacity utilization rate changes and new capacity construction progress. The price may rebound with market sentiment but is still under pressure, especially if new capacity is put into operation as scheduled [90] Summary by Section Alumina Strategy Outlook - The trading strategy suggests that alumina prices will be under pressure after a short - term rebound, and it is advisable to wait and see for arbitrage and options [93] Warrant and Inventory - Analyzes the relationship between alumina warrants, basis, and inventory, and mentions the potential for short - term production cuts [94][99] Cost and Profit - Analyzes the cost and profit of alumina in different regions, including weighted average costs, regional costs, and profitability [102][105][106] Downstream Inventory - Discusses the inventory situation of downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises and alumina enterprises [108] Alumina Import and Export - Analyzes alumina import and export data, import and export profits, and overseas market transactions [111][112][113][114][115] New Capacity Progress - Analyzes the new capacity construction plans for domestic and overseas alumina, with a focus on the progress in the first quarter of 2026 [116][117][118][119] Guinea Bauxite - Analyzes the cost of Guinea bauxite, policy trends, supply situation, and price changes [120][123][126][127] Alumina Supply - Demand Balance - Provides a long - term supply - demand balance table for alumina, including global, overseas, and domestic production, demand, and balance [136]