铅周报：美元承压支撑，铅价弱稳修复-20260126

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The weakening US dollar is favorable for the repair of lead price trends. Environmental controls in many domestic regions and the negative profit of secondary lead smelters have led to an increase in smelter shutdowns and holidays, resulting in an expected contraction in supply. Meanwhile, downstream battery enterprises are gradually stockpiling for the Spring Festival, leading to improved demand. Against the backdrop of reduced supply and increased demand, the support for the lower limit of lead prices is strengthened. In the short term, lead prices are expected to maintain a weak and stable oscillatory repair [3][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From January 16th to January 23rd, the SHFE lead price dropped from 17,475 yuan/ton to 17,095 yuan/ton, a decrease of 380 yuan/ton; the LME lead price fell from 2,037.5 dollars/ton to 2,035 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.5 dollars/ton; the SHFE-LME ratio decreased from 8.58 to 8.40, a decrease of 0.18; the SHFE inventory decreased by 7,693 tons to 29,351 tons; the LME inventory increased by 8,825 tons to 215,175 tons; the social inventory increased by 0.2 million tons to 3.45 million tons; the spot premium increased by 5 yuan/ton to -140 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the main SHFE lead 2603 contract price continued to decline at the beginning of the week, but then stabilized and oscillated after the market sentiment recovered and it found support near the integer level, finally closing at 17,095 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.17%. The LME lead price stopped falling and stabilized, and the contract price stabilized and recovered to 2,035 dollars/ton, with a decline of 0.15%. In the spot market, on January 23rd, the Honglu lead in Shanghai was quoted at 17,140 - 17,210 yuan/ton, with a premium of 50 yuan/ton over the SHFE lead 2603 contract. Downstream enterprises' risk aversion sentiment was relatively alleviated, and some enterprises made rigid purchases, but the transactions were still scattered [5] Industry News - In February 2026, the domestic and international lead concentrate processing fees were 250 yuan/metal ton and -150 dollars/dry ton respectively, with the average values decreasing by 50 yuan/metal ton and -5 dollars/dry ton respectively. - In January 2026, multiple cities in Shandong and Hebei launched heavy pollution emergency responses, affecting the production of some lead smelters. - Pan American Silver Corp. produced 55,900 tons of zinc and 27,000 tons of lead in 2025, and it is expected to produce 58,500 - 62,500 tons of zinc and 30,500 - 32,500 tons of lead in 2026. - The global lead market's supply surplus decreased from 29,200 tons in October to 8,900 tons in November. - In December 2025, the import volume of lead concentrates was 149,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 35.8% and a year-on-year increase of 24.63%; the import volume of silver concentrates was 239,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 32.3% and a year-on-year increase of 89.3%. The export volume of refined lead was 2,767 tons, a month-on-month increase of 141.08% and a year-on-year increase of 270.61%; the cumulative export volume of refined lead and lead products from January to December was 59,440 tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 42.5%. The import volume of refined lead was 8,395 tons, and the import volume of lead alloys was 24,011 tons; the cumulative import volume of refined lead and lead products from January to December was 198,641 tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 10.19%. The export volume of lead-acid batteries was 17.2406 million units, a month-on-month increase of 9.28 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 33.86 percentage points; the cumulative export volume of lead-acid batteries in 2025 was 219 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 12.79 percentage points [8][9] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE-LME ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, 1 lead premium/discount, LME lead premium/discount, price difference between primary lead and secondary refined lead, waste battery prices, secondary lead enterprise profits, lead concentrate processing fees, electrolytic lead production, secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][11][13]