钢材：需求边际转弱，节前钢价延续震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand for steel is marginally weakening, and steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate before the holiday. The market may be affected by market sentiment, leading to price volatility. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the impact of macro - news on the market, as well as coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [1][7] - The trading strategy suggests a unilateral trend of oscillating and strengthening, recommends short - selling the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar at high levels, and holding the short position of the ratio of hot - rolled coils to coking coal. For options, it is recommended to wait and see [9] 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - Supply: This week, the small - sample production of rebar was 199.55 tons (+9.25), and that of hot - rolled coils was 305.41 tons (-2.95). The daily average of blast furnace hot metal from 247 steel mills was 228.1 tons (+0.09), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 34.4% (-1.6). The cost of electric arc furnaces has been increasing, leading to a decline in profits and a decrease in capacity utilization. Long - process steel profits remain profitable, and hot metal production has continued to increase this week [4] - Demand: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 199.55 tons (+9.25), and that for hot - rolled coils was 309.96 tons (-4.20). The temperature in the East China region has dropped, and the downstream capital availability has deteriorated. The demand for hot - rolled coils is still strong due to pre - holiday inventory replenishment in the manufacturing industry, and the export situation in January is still strong. The growth rate of fixed - asset investment in China from January to December has continued to decline, and the real estate market is still weak. The manufacturing PMI has continued to be positive, and the production and sales of automobiles are strong, while the production schedule of white goods has declined [4] - Inventory: The total inventory of rebar increased by 14.03 tons, with an increase of 6.32 tons in the factory warehouse and 7.71 tons in the social warehouse. The total inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased by 4.55 tons, with an increase of 0.11 tons in the factory warehouse and a decrease of 4.66 tons in the social warehouse. The total inventory of the five major steel products increased by 10.07 tons [4] - Outlook: Before the holiday, steel prices are expected to remain volatile. Although the downstream capital availability has improved slightly, the overall demand is still weak. The raw material cost has support, but the continuous resumption of hot metal production restricts the upward space of steel prices [7] Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - Spot Prices: The summary price of rebar in Shanghai on Friday was 3270 yuan (unchanged), and that in Beijing was 3140 yuan (+10). The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3290 yuan (+10), and that of Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coils was 3170 yuan (unchanged) [13] - Basis and Spread: The basis and spread trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils are presented through charts, including the basis of 05 contracts in Shanghai, the spread between 05 and 10 contracts, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar [15][16][19] - Profit: The long - process steel mill profits are shown through charts. The cash profits of East China and Tangshan rebar, as well as Tianjin and East China hot - rolled coils, are presented. The short - process steel mill profits, specifically the flat - rate and off - peak - rate electric furnace profits in East China, are also provided. The flat - rate electric furnace profit in East China is - 141.60 yuan (-56.3), and the off - peak - rate electric furnace profit is 23 yuan (-56) [23][26][27][30][31] Chapter 3: Important Domestic and International Macroeconomic Data Summary - Macroeconomic Indicators: In 2025, GDP grew by 5%. In December, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in China was 5.2%, the year - on - year growth rate of urban fixed - asset investment was - 3.8%, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 0.9%. The central government plans to implement more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies in 2026 [33] - Social Financing and Investment: In December, the new social financing was 22075 billion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 22.64%. The new RMB loans were 9100 billion yuan. The investment growth rate of fixed assets from January to December 2025 continued to decline rapidly, and the real estate market was still a drag on domestic demand [38] - Real Estate Data: The decline in real estate development investment, new construction, completion, and sales data has narrowed, but it still maintains a negative growth of about 20 - 30%. The trading volume of commercial housing in key cities is presented through charts [40][45] Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - Supply: The daily average output of hot metal from 247 steel mills was 228.1 tons (+0.09), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 34.4% (-1.6). The small - sample production of rebar was 199.55 tons (+9.25), and that of hot - rolled coils was 305.41 tons (-2.95) [54][59] - Demand: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 185.52 tons (a 6% year - on - year decrease in the lunar calendar), and that for hot - rolled coils was 309.96 tons (a 2.39% year - on - year increase in the lunar calendar). The building material demand and cement usage are also presented. The export situation of steel in January is still strong [62][73] - Inventory: The total inventory of rebar increased, while the total inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased. The inventory trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils are presented through charts [78][79][80][81]