AI和能源转型驱动，铜价偏强震荡

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report, dated January 26, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices showed a strong and volatile trend. The main reasons were the upward revision of the US GDP growth rate in Q3 2025, the mild performance of the core PCE in November, and the robust consumer spending. Trump's announcement of deploying the US fleet to blockade Iran further fermented the global risk - aversion sentiment. The continuous new highs of gold and silver limited the downward adjustment space of copper prices. AI and new - energy transformation provided strong impetus for the refined copper consumption market. Fundamentally, the tight supply pattern at the mine end continued, the output of domestic smelters declined marginally, the global visible inventory continued to rise, the domestic trade spot premium increased, and the C - structure of the near - month contract widened [2][7]. - Overall, the further fermentation of overseas risk - aversion sentiment continuously boosted the valuation center of copper prices. The better - than - expected performance of the US economic fundamentals made the market confident about the future expansion of the global refined copper consumption market. Fundamentally, the resumption of production of overseas interrupted mines was slow. The global refined copper continued to accumulate inventory, but the supply in the distribution areas was still tight. New trends were gradually replacing traditional drivers as the mainstream in the refined copper consumption market. It was expected that copper prices would continue to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term. Attention should be paid to the latest interest rate decision of the Federal Reserve in January [2][10] Summary by Directory I. Market Data - Price Changes: LME copper rose from $12,808.50 to $13,128.50 per ton, a 2.50% increase; COMEX copper rose from 584.85 to 593.7 cents per pound, a 1.51% increase; SHFE copper rose from 100,770 to 101,340 yuan per ton, a 0.57% increase; international copper rose from 89,650 to 91,120 yuan per ton, a 1.64% increase. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 7.87 to 7.72. The LME spot premium decreased from $61.52 to - $66.06 per ton, a - 207.38% change. The Shanghai spot premium decreased from - 125 to - 180 yuan per ton [3] - Inventory Changes: As of January 23, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area increased to 1.067624 million tons. LME copper inventory increased by 28,125 tons (19.59%); COMEX inventory increased by 19,691 short tons (3.63%); SHFE inventory increased by 12,422 tons (5.82%); Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 7,800 tons (7.83%) [6] II. Market Analysis and Outlook - Macro - aspect: The US core PCE in November increased by 2.8% year - on - year, in line with expectations. Personal consumption expenditure increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and personal income increased by 0.4% month - on - month, indicating robust consumer spending. The annualized growth rate of the US GDP in Q3 2025 was revised up to 4.4%. The IMF raised the US economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.4%. Trump's actions and statements on geopolitical issues and the Federal Reserve's policy and personnel appointment further fermented the market risk - aversion sentiment, and the new highs of gold and silver boosted the copper price valuation center. In China, the industrial added value of large - scale industries in December increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with different growth rates in various industries [7][8] - Supply - demand aspect: Rio Tinto's copper production in Q4 increased by 5% year - on - year. In November, the domestic copper production was basically flat month - on - month. The import of copper concentrates in November reached 2.526 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.1%. In terms of demand, traditional industries were affected by high copper prices at the beginning of the year, while emerging industries such as new - energy vehicles, photovoltaics, AI data centers, and robots showed good prospects [9] III. Industry News - Rio Tinto: Its Q4 copper production increased by 5%. The expansion of the Oyu Tolgoi underground mine in Mongolia offset the decline in the Escondida copper mine in Chile. It is in key acquisition negotiations with Glencore and must make a formal offer by February 5 [11] - Lundin Mining: Due to the decline in the underground mining efficiency of its Candelaria copper mine in Chile, it lowered its copper and gold production guidance for 2026. The company's stock price fell by more than 10% on Thursday [12] - Capstone Copper: A copper mine in northern Chile has been shut down due to a nearly three - week labor strike, intensifying the global copper supply shortage [13] IV. Related Charts - The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of Shanghai copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, global visible inventory, etc., with data sources from iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [15][16][20]