估值偏低存在修复需求，短期震荡偏强

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The valuation of ferroalloys is low and there is a need for repair. In the short term, the market is expected to be volatile and bullish [1][5] - For ferrosilicon, the supply is expected to shrink, the demand has support, and the cost has an upward adjustment expectation. For silicomanganese, the supply is stable, the demand has support, and the cost of manganese ore and electricity price has support [5] - The strategy is to hold long positions, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell put options on rallies [6] Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Ferrosilicon: The start - up rate and output of sample enterprises continue to decline. Due to the differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi, there is an expectation of future supply contraction. Steel production is stable, and future hot metal production is expected to rise slightly, supporting raw material demand. Some regions' electricity prices have an upward adjustment expectation. Short - term supply - demand improves marginally, and the valuation is not high, so it is expected to be volatile and bullish this week [5] - Silicomanganese: The start - up rate and output have a slight rebound, but the profit is not good, and the upward trend is difficult to form. There are some new production capacities put into operation, and the supply is generally stable. Similar to ferrosilicon, the demand has support, the port manganese ore inventory is at a low level, the spot price is firm, and the overseas mining company's February manganese ore US dollar quotation continues to rise slightly. It is expected to be volatile and bullish this week [5] Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term supply - demand has improved, and the alloy valuation is not high. It is expected to be volatile and bullish this week. Hold the previous long positions [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell put options on rallies [6] 2. Core Logic Analysis - Not provided in the report 3. Weekly Data Tracking Supply - demand Data Tracking - Demand: The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills is 228.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon of five major steel types is 1.87 tons (about 70% of the total demand), a week - on - week increase of 0.02 tons; the weekly demand for silicomanganese of five major steel types (70%) is 11.69 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 tons [11] - Supply: The start - up rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 29.09%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12%; the weekly supply of ferrosilicon is 9.84 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 tons. The start - up rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises is 36.21%, a week - on - week increase of 0.15%; the weekly supply of silicomanganese (99%) is 19.11 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 tons [12] - Inventory: In the week of January 16th, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 6.72 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.35 tons; the inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of the national production capacity) is 37.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 tons [13] Spot Price - Basis - Not summarized due to only graphical information provided Ferroalloy Enterprise Production Situation - Not summarized due to only graphical information provided Steel Mill Production Situation - Not summarized due to only graphical information provided Silicomanganese Cost - Profit - The production cost and profit of silicomanganese vary by region. For example, in Inner Mongolia, the production cost is 5868 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 188 yuan/ton [35] Cost Manganese Ore Price - Not summarized due to only graphical information provided Ferrosilicon Cost - Profit - The production cost and profit of ferrosilicon vary by region. For example, in Inner Mongolia, the production cost is 5452 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 152 yuan/ton [45] Cost Carbon Element and Electricity Price - Not summarized due to only graphical information provided Hebei Representative Steel Mill's Bidding Price for Double Silicon - Not summarized due to only graphical information provided Monthly Output of Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - Not summarized due to only graphical information provided Import and Export of Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon - Not summarized due to only graphical information provided Ferrosilicon Inventory of Alloy Plants vs. Steel Mills - Not summarized due to only graphical information provided Manganese Ore Inventory of Alloy Plants, Steel Mills, and Ports - Not summarized due to only graphical information provided