甲醇周报：供需偏弱VS预期改善，甲醇或偏强震荡-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current methanol market is in a balanced state of supply - demand game. The support comes from cost support due to rising freight, downstream rigid procurement at low prices, and the expectation of inventory reduction after the subsequent decrease in port imports. The suppression factors are abundant domestic supply, high inventories in ports and inland areas, and weak downstream demand. However, boosted by the improvement in the macro - environment, methanol prices may still show a strong - side trend [8][33]. - In the future, methanol may fluctuate strongly. It is advisable to consider selling put options or using bull spread strategies [9]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, supported by the expected reduction in methanol imports, methanol futures showed a strong - side performance. By the Friday afternoon close, the weighted methanol price reached 2,298 yuan/ton, a 2.64% increase from the previous week. - In the spot market, the port methanol market showed a volatile and consolidating trend under the combined influence of multiple factors. The price in Jiangsu fluctuated between 2,180 - 2,250 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong between 2,180 - 2,240 yuan/ton. In the inland market, due to abundant domestic supply, high inventories in the middle and lower reaches, and the off - season demand, enterprises actively reduced prices to clear inventory before the festival, and the market continued to decline. The price in the main production area of Ordos North Line fluctuated between 1,787 - 1,835 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying, a downstream area, was between 2,115 - 2,115 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - Production: Last week (20260116 - 0122), China's methanol production was 2,008,915 tons, a decrease of 26,460 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 89.92%, a 1.31% decrease from the previous week [12]. - Downstream Demand: As of January 22, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream methanol products were as follows: the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO in the Yangtze River Delta was 44.38%, a decrease of 9.46 percentage points from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether was 5.25%, a 40.37% increase from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid increased; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides decreased significantly; the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate was 34.51%, an increase from the previous week [16][17]. - Inventory: As of January 21, 2026, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 438,300 tons, a decrease of 12,500 tons from the previous period, a 2.78% decrease; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 238,300 tons, a slight increase of 500 tons from the previous period, a 0.21% increase. The inventory of China's methanol port samples was 1.4575 million tons, an increase of 22,200 tons from the previous period, a 1.55% increase [18][22]. - Profit: Last week (20260116 - 0122), the profits of methanol production from various processes generally weakened. The weekly average profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia in the northwest was - 268.80 yuan/ton, a 6.84% decrease from the previous week; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shandong was - 176.80 yuan/ton, a 10.07% increase from the previous week; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shanxi was - 204.40 yuan/ton, a 0.79% decrease from the previous week; the weekly average profit of methanol production from coke oven gas in Hebei was 77.00 yuan/ton, a 28.04% decrease from the previous week; the weekly average profit of methanol production from natural gas in the southwest was - 266.00 yuan/ton, a 11.76% decrease from the previous week [26]. 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - Supply: This week, more domestic methanol devices are expected to resume production than to be shut down for maintenance. It is estimated that China's methanol production will be about 2.0746 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 92.87%, an increase from last week [29]. - Downstream Demand: For olefins, the weekly average capacity utilization rate is expected to decline; for dimethyl ether, the overall capacity utilization rate may increase; for glacial acetic acid, the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase; for formaldehyde, the capacity utilization rate is expected to decrease; for chlorides, the capacity utilization rate is expected to decrease [30][31][33]. - Inventory: It is estimated that the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises will be 428,400 tons this week, with a continued expectation of inventory reduction. The port methanol inventory is expected to fluctuate little, and specific attention should be paid to the unloading speed of foreign vessels and changes in the pick - up volume [33].