国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20260126

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Reached a new high [2] - Silver: Approaching 100 [2] - Copper: Price strengthened due to increased disturbances in copper mines [2][9] - Zinc: Operating strongly [2][12] - Lead: Price supported by a decrease in LME inventory [2][15] - Tin: Oscillating strongly [2][18] - Aluminum: Oscillating strongly [2][22] - Alumina: Consolidating at the bottom [2][22] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][22] - Platinum: Rising sharply [2][24] - Palladium: Be cautious of the potential for a catch - up rally [2][24] - Nickel: Uncertainty over Indonesian events, with a game between hedging and speculative positions [2][31] - Stainless steel: Concerns about nickel ore in Indonesia intensified, and the rise in nickel - iron prices supported the price center [2][29] - Lithium carbonate: High - level oscillation supported by strong reality [2][35] - Industrial silicon: The upstream factories cut production, and the futures price oscillated strongly [2][40] - Polysilicon: Focus on spot trading [2][40] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation due to sector sentiment resonance [2][43] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation due to sector sentiment resonance [2][43] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation with an upward cost expectation [2] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation due to sector sentiment resonance [2][47] - Coke: Range - bound oscillation with industrial and capital cooperation [2][51] - Coking coal: Range - bound oscillation with industrial and capital cooperation [2][52] - Steam coal: Supply and demand tend to weaken, with short - term prices fluctuating in a narrow range [2][56] - p - Xylene: Unilateral upward trend [2][58] - PTA: Unilateral upward trend [2][58] - MEG: Unilateral upward trend [2][58] - Synthetic rubber: Operating strongly, but be aware of marginal valuation pressure [2][68] - LLDPE: Risk preference continued to spill over, and the basis weakened significantly [2][71] - PP: Low production scheduling continued, with limited profit recovery [2][74] - Caustic soda: Oscillating at a low level [2][77] - Glass: The price of the original sheet remained stable [2][82] - Methanol: Oscillation with support [2][86] - Urea: The oscillation center moved up [2][91] - Styrene: Oscillating strongly [2][94] - Soda ash: Little change in the spot market [2][97] - LPG: Strong short - term geopolitical disturbances [2][102] - Propylene: Upward trend, but the rally slowed down [2][102] - PVC: Range - bound oscillation [2][113] - Fuel oil: Rising strongly, with increasing volatility [2][114] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Continuing the upward trend, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels on the overseas market fell to a new low again [2][114] - Container shipping index (European route): Oscillating market; Gradually reduce short positions in the 04 contract and hold short positions in the 10 contract as appropriate [2][117] - Staple fiber: Short - term upward trend on January 26, 2026 [2][130] - Bottle chips: Short - term upward trend on January 26, 2026 [2][130] - Offset printing paper: Wait - and - see [2][133] - Pure benzene: Oscillating strongly [2][137] - Palm oil: Short - term oscillation with an upward bias due to multiple factors [2][140] - Soybean oil: Lack of themes for US soybeans, and the oil - to - meal ratio rebounded [2][140] - Soybean meal: May oscillate following US soybeans [2][145] - Soybean: The spot price was stable, and the futures price rebounded and oscillated [2][145] - Corn: Oscillating strongly [2][148] - Sugar: Consolidating at a low level [2][152] - Cotton: Oscillating strongly on January 26, 2026 [2][157] - Eggs: The spot price was strong during the pre - holiday peak season [2][162] - Hogs: The demand expectation for the Laba Festival was fulfilled, and focus on supply contradictions [2][165] - Peanuts: Oscillating [2][169] Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the futures market for various commodities on January 26, 2026. It includes the latest price data, trading volume, open interest, and other fundamental information for each commodity, as well as relevant macro and industry news. The report also gives a trend strength assessment for each commodity, which can help investors understand the market trends and make investment decisions [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: Gold reached a new high, and silver was approaching 100. The price of Comex gold 2602 rose by 2.11%, and Comex silver 2602 rose by 3.51%. The trend strength of both was 1 [2][5]. Base Metals - Copper: The price strengthened due to increased disturbances in copper mines, such as strikes and environmental fines. The trend strength was 1 [2][9]. - Zinc: Operating strongly, with an increase in the LME zinc price. The trend strength was 1 [2][12]. - Lead: The price was supported by a decrease in LME inventory. The trend strength was 0 [2][15]. - Tin: Oscillating strongly, with significant increases in both the domestic and overseas markets. The trend strength was 1 [2][18]. - Aluminum and Related Products: Aluminum was oscillating strongly, alumina was consolidating at the bottom, and cast aluminum alloy was following the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength of aluminum and cast aluminum alloy was 1, while that of alumina was - 1 [2][22]. - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum was rising sharply, and palladium should be watched for potential catch - up rallies. The trend strength of both was 1 [2][24]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: For nickel, the situation in Indonesia was uncertain, with a game between hedging and speculative positions. Stainless steel prices were supported by concerns about nickel ore in Indonesia and the rise in nickel - iron prices. The trend strength of both was 0 [2][29][31]. Energy and Chemicals - Lithium Carbonate: High - level oscillation supported by strong reality. The trend strength was 0 [2][35]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon was oscillating strongly due to upstream factory production cuts, and polysilicon required attention to spot trading. The trend strength of industrial silicon was 1, and that of polysilicon was 0 [2][40]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Wide - range oscillation due to sector sentiment resonance. The trend strength of both was 0 [2][43]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation, with ferrosilicon's cost expectation rising. The trend strength of both was 0 [2][47]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Range - bound oscillation with industrial and capital cooperation. The trend strength of both was 0 [2][51][52]. - Steam Coal: Supply and demand tended to weaken, with short - term prices fluctuating in a narrow range. The trend strength was not mentioned [2][56]. - p - Xylene, PTA, and MEG: All showed a unilateral upward trend. The trend strength of all was 1 [2][58]. - Synthetic Rubber: Operating strongly, but be aware of marginal valuation pressure. The trend strength was 1 [2][68]. - LLDPE and PP: LLDPE's risk preference continued to spill over, and the basis weakened significantly. PP had low production scheduling and limited profit recovery. The trend strength of both was - 1 [2][71][74]. - Caustic Soda: Oscillating at a low level. The trend strength was 0 [2][77]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet remained stable. The trend strength was - 1 [2][82]. - Methanol: Oscillation with support. The trend strength was 1 [2][86]. - Urea: The oscillation center moved up. The trend strength was 0 [2][91]. - Styrene: Oscillating strongly. The trend strength was 0 [2][94]. - Soda Ash: Little change in the spot market. The trend strength was - 1 [2][97]. - LPG and Propylene: LPG had strong short - term geopolitical disturbances, and propylene's upward trend slowed down. The trend strength of both was 1 [2][102]. - PVC: Range - bound oscillation. The trend strength was 0 [2][113]. - Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Fuel oil was rising strongly with increasing volatility, and low - sulfur fuel oil continued the upward trend. The trend strength of both was 1 [2][114]. Agricultural Products - Container Shipping Index (European Route): Oscillating market, with suggestions to gradually reduce short positions in the 04 contract and hold short positions in the 10 contract as appropriate. The trend strength was 0 [2][117]. - Staple Fiber and Bottle Chips: Short - term upward trend on January 26, 2026. The trend strength of both was 1 [2][130]. - Offset Printing Paper: Wait - and - see. The trend strength was 0 [2][133]. - Pure Benzene: Oscillating strongly. The trend strength was 0 [2][137]. - Palm Oil and Soybean Oil: Palm oil was short - term oscillating with an upward bias, and soybean oil's oil - to - meal ratio rebounded. The trend strength of both was 1 [2][140]. - Soybean Meal and Soybean: Soybean meal may oscillate following US soybeans, and the soybean spot price was stable with a rebounding futures price. The trend strength of both was 0 [2][145]. - Corn: Oscillating strongly. The trend strength was 1 [2][148]. - Sugar: Consolidating at a low level. The trend strength was 0 [2][152]. - Cotton: Oscillating strongly on January 26, 2026. The trend strength was 1 [2][157]. - Eggs: The spot price was strong during the pre - holiday peak season. The trend strength was 0 [2][162]. - Hogs: The demand expectation for the Laba Festival was fulfilled, and attention should be paid to supply contradictions. The trend strength was - 1 [2][165]. - Peanuts: Oscillating. The trend strength was 0 [2][169].