合成橡胶：偏强运行，但关注边际估值压力

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is rated as "1", indicating a "moderately strong" outlook. The range of trend strength is [-2, 2], where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, with the macro - narrative of incremental funds allocating more to the chemical sector, butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber are expected to run strongly. This is due to continuous neutral spot transactions in the synthetic rubber industry chain and cost - push from the strong short - term fundamentals of butadiene. However, some valuation indicators of cis - butadiene rubber are approaching the boundary, and there is an increasing negative feedback expectation [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: For the cis - butadiene rubber main contract (03 contract), the daily closing price increased from 12,270 yuan/ton to 12,930 yuan/ton, the trading volume rose from 182,757 lots to 356,678 lots, the open interest increased from 96,682 lots to 127,376 lots, and the trading volume in ten thousand yuan increased from 1,104,674 to 2,283,655 [1]. - Spread Data: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene minus the futures main contract increased from - 420 to - 230; the monthly spread of BR02 - BR05 (private) decreased from - 110 to - 120. The prices of cis - butadiene in North China, East China, and South China (private) increased by 750, 700, and 650 yuan/ton respectively. The market price of Shandong cis - butadiene (delivery product) increased by 850 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (type 1502 and 1712) increased by 600 and 400 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 850 and 950 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Fundamentals: The cis - butadiene rubber operating rate remained at 74.599%, the theoretical full cost of cis - butadiene increased from 12,697 yuan/ton to 13,315 yuan/ton, and the profit of cis - butadiene increased from - 697 yuan/ton to - 615 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Industry News - As of January 21, 2026, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 35,400 tons, an increase of 500 tons compared to the previous period, with a month - on - month increase of 1.32%. Due to sufficient spot - end circulation resources, downstream procurement continued to push down prices, and the inventory of some sample production enterprises still increased. However, the price advantage of arbitrage resources emerged, and downstream low - price procurement increased, resulting in a decrease in the inventory of sample trading enterprises [2]. - On January 21, the latest inventory of butadiene at East China ports was about 34,500 tons, a significant decrease of 10,100 tons compared to the previous period. Due to limited arrival of imported vessels and relatively high operating rates of major downstream industries, the raw material inventory decreased significantly, leading to a significant drop in the inventory of sample ports [3]. - In the short term, butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber are expected to run strongly. The reasons are: the overall synthetic rubber industry chain has continuous neutral spot transactions, maintaining high apparent demand for synthetic rubber; the short - term fundamentals of butadiene are strong, forming a cost - push logic for synthetic rubber. The supply of butadiene in China is at a high level, but the Asian regional operating rate is restricted, and the international butadiene price increase drives up the price in China. The demand for butadiene from synthetic rubber, ABS, and SBS remains high. The apparent demand for cis - butadiene rubber remains high, and it mainly fluctuates with the cost. However, some valuation indicators of cis - butadiene rubber are approaching the boundary, and the negative feedback expectation is increasing [3].